While the presidency of COP29 must reach an agreement on new climate financing and push states to turn away from fossil fuels, a report from the NGO Oil Big Change shows that the countries organizing COP28, 29 and 30 intend to increase their fossil energy production by a third by 2035.
The big challenge of COP28 in Dubai was to implement the necessary exit from fossil fuels. The final agreement adopted on December 13, 2023 calls on the world to move away from fossil fuels. But since then, we observe a yawning gap between the speeches of the ministers who succeeded one another at COP28 to swear that they were in favor of phasing out fossil fuels and what they are doing at home”denounces Romain Ioualalencampaign manager “global politics » to the NGO Oil Change International.
The double discourse of the COP “Troika”
Following COP28, the United Arab Emirates, organizers of COP28 in Dubai, Azerbaijan, host country of COP29 in Baku, and Brazil, which will host COP30 next year in Belém, joined forces within the “Troika of COP Presidencies” to strengthen cooperation between countries and accelerate the decarbonization of economies in order to limit warming below +1.5°C.
These three countries have repeatedly committed to submitting nationally determined contributions (NDCs) aligned with the 1.5°C target, while urging other countries to do so. However, contrary to their commitments, these three countries plan to increase their oil and gas production by 32% by 2035, denounces a new report from Oil Change International. In detail, Brazil plans to increase it by 36%, the United Arab Emirates by 34% and Azerbaijan by 14%. Far from these figures, to limit climate change to 1.5°C, the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls for reducing global oil and gas production by 55% by 2035.
The United Arab Emirates wins a sad record. “ Even more striking: the United Arab Emirates is the country that has opened the most new oil and gas operations in 2024 since the signing of the Dubai Accord,” sharing Romain Ioualalen. A project should even operate there until 2100, well after carbon neutrality planned for 2050.
So how can we turn the situation around?
« One of the main obstacles to the exit from fossil fuels and the effective implementation of what was decided in Dubai is the absence of money and the collective dependence of many southern countries on fossil fuel revenues to finance their economy »insists Romain Ioualalen.
In line with the Climate Action Network (CAN), the NGO therefore defends a new climate financing objective (NCQG) from developed countries of at least 1,000 billion dollars per year, with a sub-objective of at least $300 billion per year for mitigation financing. “ This will allow countries to adopt national climate plans in 2025 that will immediately end the expansion of oil, gas and coal”hopes Oil Change International.
Beyond this external financing, developed countries must lead the phase-out of fossil fuels in their own economies. Another study by Oil Change International shows that just five countries in the North – the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway and the United Kingdom – are expected to be responsible for around half of carbon emissions from new oil and gas fields and hydraulic fracturing wells by 2050.
Oil Change International calls on the Troika to set a benchmark for NDCs aligned with the 1.5°C target to include a clear plan to end new oil, coal and gas projects. “ We really have a credibility problem regarding the implementation of this agreementshares Romain Ioualalen. What we want to see collectively is that the 2025-2035 CDNs show how countries will implement the commitment to get out of fossil fuels”.
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