The G20 leaders meet on Monday in Rio de Janeiro for a summit under great pressure, between the need for a compromise on the climate and glaring differences on Ukraine and the Middle East, before the return of Donald Trump.
The heads of state and government of the largest advanced and emerging economies, including the presidents of the two superpowers, the American Joe Biden, at the twilight of his mandate, and the Chinese Xi Jinping, must try to move forward on the issue climate finance.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Sunday called on G20 leaders to assume their “leadership” and make “compromises” to enable “a positive outcome at COP29”, the climate conference in Baku where Negotiations on the subject have stalled for a week.
The members of the G20 (19 countries, as well as the European Union and the African Union) represent 85% of global GDP and 80% of greenhouse gas emissions.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli offensive in Gaza and Lebanon also continue to fracture the international community.
“The discussions on Ukraine and the Middle East (…) are the most difficult. We will see how far we can go in the press release, it will be a challenge”, admitted before the G20 a government source German.
On Ukraine, which has just suffered one of the most significant Russian attacks in recent months, “we will firmly oppose any degradation of language”, warned the French presidency.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had already missed the last summits, will be notably absent in Rio.
However, the moment is strategic: Washington has just given authorization to Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the United States.
– The uncertainty Milei –
Will the G20 therefore succeed in agreeing on a joint communiqué by the end of its summit on Tuesday?
In recent days, to the differences over the major ongoing conflicts has been added uncertainty over the attitude that Argentine President Javier Milei, ultra-liberal and climate skeptic, will adopt.
Buenos Aires has raised certain objections and will not “necessarily” sign the text, the head of the Argentine delegation, Federico Pinedo, told AFP, without going into details.
Left-wing Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, host of the summit, hopes to score points on social issues, as he poses as champion of the “Global South” and the most disadvantaged.
The ex-worker also warned on Sunday evening, in an interview on the Brazilian channel GloboNews: he wants to leave the conflicts aside, “because otherwise, we are not going to discuss the other things which are important” for “the poor, the invisible people of the world.
Lula intends to strike a major blow with the launch Monday morning of a Global Alliance against hunger and poverty.
It will bring together countries from around the world and international institutions in order to provide financial resources and replicate initiatives that work locally.
Lula also pushes for taxation of the richest. The G20 finance ministers pledged to “cooperate” on the subject in Rio in July and in Washington in October.
– Fragmentation –
The shadow of Donald Trump, who returns to the White House in January, will hang over the Rio meeting – and not just because Javier Milei visited him in Florida a few days ago.
Outgoing US President Joe Biden sent his successor a message in favor of environmental protection on Sunday during a stopover in the Brazilian Amazon.
From the heart of the tropical forest in Manaus, he defended his record in the fight against global warming, according to him an “existential threat” to humanity.
The return to power of the Republican, supporter of fossil fuels and slayer of multilateralism, fuels fears of a weakening of global ambitions to fight global warming and of even greater international fragmentation.
“We are undoubtedly entering a much more unpredictable global scenario, but also with much more space for the countries of the South, for China, etc., to articulate their own visions, because the old order is on the point of collapsing”, underlined Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in Sao Paulo.
Xi Jinping, who arrived in Rio on Sunday from Lima where he participated in an Asia-Pacific summit like Joe Biden, must also increase the number of bilateral meetings.
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