Germany and the UK signed a major defense treaty last week, but will it be enough to save NATO as Europe prepares for another change in US president this week?
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German and British Defense Ministers Boris Pistorius and John Healey signed on October 23 an important defense treaty, which strengthens cooperation between the two countries in the land, maritime and air domains, as well as their precision strike capabilities.
For weeks, experts have been sounding the alarm: NATO and European security could find themselves in a very precarious position after Tuesday’s election of a new American president.
The german government has been preparing for a possible second term for Donald Trump for months, but other experts suggest that even if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, she will shift her focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region as early as 2027.
Dr Aylin Matlé, defense expert, believes that the timing of the signing of the agreement is not trivial.
“Even in the event of a Kamala Harris victory, I expect the US government to demand much more from its European allies”she explains. “This agreement is certainly a new step in strengthening the European pillar of NATO”.
“The signing of this treaty comes after the European Initiative for Long-Range Strikes, which focuses on the development and acquisition of long-range missiles, which have become vital since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine”she adds.
Preparing Europe for a possible second term of Donald Trump
Aylin Matlé believes that the Trinity House agreement will represent an important step forward for the security of the European NATO region in the event of a second term of Donald Trump.
She adds, however, that this will not be “probably not alone the miracle solution to save and help Europeans to contribute more to their own defense.”
“But I think it is certainly a very important step in political terms, because it sends a message both to the domestic public, but especially to other Europeans and the American public”she declares.
In the event of a second presidency of Donald Trump, Aylin Matlé believes that it is “very likely that he will make tougher demands of the Europeans, in particular of Germany, which he already did during his first mandate”.
Strengthening the autonomy of European defense
One of Donald Trump’s most vocal criticisms of NATO and Berlin in particular is that Germany failed to spend more than 2% of its GDP on defense until this year.
According to Aylin Matlé, the main objective of this treaty is to show the United States that Europe is ready to better assume its part in the defense of the continentalthough the agreement is not yet legally binding.
“To make it legally binding, the two countries announced that they will draw up a real treaty, which will then be signed by the two heads of state – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer – which is expected to be drawn up early next year”she concludes.
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