The start of Gta gas exploitation should stimulate Senegal’s growth in 2025.
In its latest report (January 2025) on Africa’s economic outlook, the World Bank expects growth of 9.7% for Senegal in 2025. This should be the highest growth rate on the continent.
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to consolidate to reach 4.1% in 2025, then 4.3% in 2026, against a backdrop of declining inflation and easing financial conditions. If regional growth was weaker than expected in 2024, forecasts were revised upwards, respectively, for 2025 and 2026, by +0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. However, these averages mask significant disparities.
According to World Bank forecasts, Senegal is expected to record the highest growth rate on the continent at 9.7%.
Mauritania, with which Senegal shares the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (Gta) gas field, will also see its growth (7.8%) boosted by the exploitation of this field. In WAEMU, Ivory Coast (6.4%), Benin (6.4%) and Niger (8.5%) are also expected to record strong growth. On the other hand, two African giants, Nigeria and South Africa, will continue to lag behind the rest of the region despite the expected growth recovery in both countries, the report said. Excluding sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest economies, regional growth is expected to rise to 5.3% in 2025-2026. Economies exporting industrial goods (excluding Sudan) are expected to recover as household consumption improves, leading the services sector to rebound. Against a backdrop of falling inflation, the gradual reduction in policy rates is expected to boost private consumption and investment in many sub-Saharan African economies over the forecast period, says the World Bank.
-At the same time, due to high levels of debt and rising borrowing costs, budgetary room for maneuver will be limited; which will continue to weigh on public spending in all countries in the region, warns the World Bank. Furthermore, per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by an average of 1.7% per year in 2025-2026, a rate lower than the average growth of emerging and developing economies (even excluding China and India). ). Angola, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan are even expected to record a fall in their per capita income over the projection period.
According to the World Bank, around 30% of the region’s economies will not have returned to their pre-Covid-19 GDP per capita levels by 2026, representing as many years lost in terms of income growth and of poverty reduction. However, the African economy faces many risks. First, global growth could be weaker than expected in a context of increased uncertainty and the possibility of unfavorable shifts in trade policies. Then, a more marked economic slowdown than expected in China, a rise in global geopolitical tensions as well as a worsening of political instability and an intensification of violent conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa. Still according to the report, more stubborn inflation than expected could keep global interest rates high; which would accentuate the difficulties faced by heavily indebted countries.
Seydou KA
