The International Monetary Fund is lecturing France. “ A significant effort must be made to bring the French budget deficit in line with what is planned according to European budgetary rules. France, its budgetary decisions, must fall within the framework of European budgetary rules », affirmed this Friday, January 17 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, its chief economist, on the sidelines of the presentation of its report on the world economy.
A subject on which the IMF “ a des discussions » with the services of Bercy « on the best way » to achieve this, while ensuring that this “ don't come and destroy growth too “. As a reminder, in 2014, an IMF report, produced by the chief economist at the time, Olivier Blanchard, at the end of the European debt crisis, concluded that a drop of one percentage point in public spending could result in up to one percentage point less growth.
“Replenish budgetary reserves”
But, this objective must not be achieved “ simply for bureaucratic reasons, because there are rules and you have to comply with them “, he recalled, “ there is a much more fundamental reason: we must reconstitute budgetary reserves which are no longer there » and which would notably make it possible to deal with a future crisis. Especially as pressure increases on public finances, with “ markets (which) have become more vigilant ».
« As we have seen since the summer, rates on French debt have increased significantly compared to German debt. We must not be alarmist, it is a situation which is entirely manageable, but nevertheless the markets have sent a small warning message », recalled Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. “ A global dynamic » which does not only concern France, since rates on long-term sovereign debts are rising all over the world, but which will “ add pressure » on public finances.
Growth revised downward
« We need to consolidate, but we need to do it intelligently “, insisted the chief economist of the IMF, “ ensure that there is some form of sustainability “. The IMF revised downwards its growth forecasts for France in 2025 on Friday, expecting to see the French economy grow by just 0.8% compared to 1.1% in its previous estimate last October.
-This growth forecast is slightly lower than that of the government, which for its part anticipates 0.9% growth, with a public deficit expected to reach 5.4% of GDP by the end of the year.
Regarding the global economy, the fonds has now announced that it expects 3.3% growth for 2025 (revised by +0.1 percentage point), but with increasingly marked divergences between countries and regions. “ The American economy is doing very well, with a solid job market and private demand that remains robust. In contrast, growth in the euro zone is picking up again but we have still revised our forecasts downwards », declared its chief economist.
He also underlined the existence of persistent risks, of a resurgence of inflation in the United States for example but also of deflation in other countries such as China, as well as the consequences of political instability in more several economies. major.
