(Quebec) “Economic instability is upon us. Donald Trump’s political decisions are a threat to the economic stability of Quebec. »
Published at 5:00 a.m.
One might believe that these are the words of Prime Minister François Legault. Rather, they are those of his predecessor, Philippe Couillard, in 2018.
US President Donald Trump had just imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from abroad – they would be lifted for Canada the following year.
“We are facing someone who is adopting ways never seen before in terms of international politics. It takes serious people, people who are able to put their hands on the wheel and ensure that they lead Quebec’s economy safely,” added businessman Alexandre Taillefer, who would chair the electoral campaign of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) a few months later.
The Liberals then adopted Jean Charest’s recipe. In 2008, at the head of a minority government, he called elections and argued the importance of having “both hands on the wheel” to face the “economic storm” feared due to the crisis. financial.
The strategies of MM. Charest and Couillard were roughly similar (but the result was different). They were trying to take political advantage of a crisis. They didn’t invent anything: an old saying says that you should never let a good crisis go to waste.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford understood this well today. He donned the cape of Captain Canada and caused a furore on Wednesday with his cap Canada is not for sale (“Canada is not for sale”). He is planning early general elections.
PHOTO SEAN KILPATRICK, THE CANADIAN PRESS
“Canada is not for sale,” could be read on the cap of Ontario Premier Doug Ford in Ottawa on Wednesday.
If François Legault says he rules out such a scenario and sticks to fixed-date elections in 2026 (his polls are not favorable like those of Mr. Ford, after all, and the Liberals have no leader), he is also well aware of the opportunity offered to him with Donald Trump’s threats: to pose as a defender of Quebec’s interests to regain popular favor. But things are more complicated than they seem.
The situation is changing
The return of Donald Trump to the White House and, above all, the probable imposition of customs tariffs on Canadian products are likely to change the political situation in Quebec.
-Next week, all political parties bring together their caucus to prepare for the return to the National Assembly on January 28. But all eyes will be on Washington, where Donald Trump will be sworn in on Monday. What will be his first decrees? What customs tariffs will be imposed? The menu of the parliamentary session will be relegated to the background. François Legault’s reaction will take up a lot of space; his opponents will have a lot to do to stand out.
For a year, the Parti Québécois of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has been in the lead in voting intentions. Could the economic context reverse the trend and lead voters to rally behind the Prime Minister? ask the caquistes.
Don’t be surprised if François Legault reminds everyone that he has managed crises before – COVID-19 – and that the time has not come to add instability with a referendum on sovereignty.
Beyond this predictable positioning, it’s not that simple. François Legault demonstrated this by changing his speech since the threats made by Donald Trump at the end of November.
Canadian Unity
Initially, François Legault insisted above all on saying that the president-designate’s fears about borders were “legitimate” and that he shared his concerns. He took the opportunity to put pressure on Ottawa on this issue. And like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, he ruled out the idea of reducing or limiting energy exports in retaliation.
On Wednesday, François Legault did not rule out using hydroelectricity to respond to Donald Trump. And he showed up alongside Justin Trudeau and other prime ministers to try to show a united front as Canada prepares its arsenal. Danielle Smith broke ranks, refusing to allow Ottawa to reduce oil exports to hurt the Americans.
Will François Legault agree to play the game for a long time? On November 26, he himself raised the risks for Quebec that future negotiations with Donald Trump could represent.
“We must be careful that the federal government does not come and offer compromises at the expense of the Quebec economy, for example by saying: “Okay, we will protect oil, we will protect cars, but we will not protect aeronautics , or wood, or aluminum.” » The opposition parties would not fail to criticize him for a lack of leadership in such a scenario.
François Legault estimates that 100,000 jobs would be lost in Quebec if Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25%. According to the “catastrophe” scenario of the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, Quebec would experience a recession, with a decline in GDP of 1%. Public finances would be even more in the red. Nothing to rejoice at the end of the second term.
Taking advantage of a crisis can be easier said than done.
