François Bayrou reopened the debate on Tuesday on a contested pension reform wanted by Emmanuel Macron. An opening to the left intended to avoid censorship similar to that which brought down the previous government. The Prime Minister announced to the Assembly the “restart” of this reform, which had pushed back the retirement age to 64 in 2023, despite the hostility of a majority of public opinion.
“I choose to put this subject back on the table, with the social partners, for a short time,” declared the 73-year-old Prime Minister, adding in his general policy speech that there would be “no taboo, not even age” of departure. The contested reform will, however, apply if the social partners do not agree on an alternative pension financing solution within three months.
This balancing act should allow Bayrou to wrest a form of neutrality from the moderate left, without antagonizing his supporters from the center and the right. This speech was not to be followed immediately on Tuesday by a vote of confidence, but the radical left of the La France Insoumise (LFI) party warned that it would table a motion of censure as quickly as possible which will be examined on Thursday or Friday.
This motion of censure might not be voted for by the more moderate fringe of the left. “We are perhaps a few hours away from a possible agreement. I think we can conclude,” the First Secretary of the Socialist Party (PS) Olivier Faure predicted on Tuesday morning, summing up long hours of negotiations between his party and the government. Without the socialist votes, a motion of censure would a priori be rejected, because the National Rally (RN) confirmed that it would not vote for it to avoid “the politics of the worst”.
Bayrou must navigate the fragmented political scene resulting from the early legislative elections organized after the surprise dissolution of the Assembly in June. The hemicycle is divided into three blocks, none of which has an absolute majority. The centrist’s first challenge is to pass a budget for 2025, under pressure from oppositions and the financial markets.
Bayrou announced in this regard that his government was targeting a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2025, compared to 6.1% expected for 2024. France posted the worst performance of the Twenty-Seven with the exception of Romania. , very far from the 3% ceiling allowed by EU rules. The Prime Minister is seeking to avoid suffering the same fate as his predecessor Michel Barnier, whose government was overthrown after three months by an alliance of left and far-right deputies.
On the left, the break seems complete between the socialists and their radical LFI allies, despite the electoral pact made last summer. Faced with criticism from his ally, Olivier Faure insisted that the PS was in “a useful opposition”. “There is a left that screams and a left that works,” he said.
