German industrial orders fell again between October and November, by 5.4%, confirming the setbacks in this crucial sector for Europe’s largest economy, according to figures from the Destatis institute published on Wednesday. Excluding large contracts, order intake in the manufacturing industry however showed a slight increase of 0.2% in November over one month.
The transport sector had in fact recorded a significant volume of orders in October, returning to a normal level in November. Apart from this volatile factor, “the evolution is therefore more or less stable at the end of autumn 2024”underlines Jens-Oliver Niklasch, analyst at LBBW, “but the figures show overall that the national industry was in bad shape last year”. The indicator recorded a decline of 1.5% in October.
German industry, which accounts for nearly 20% of GDP, has suffered for two years from excessive costs, a decline in global demand and stubborn Chinese competition. In November, orders fell in the metallurgical industry (-1.2%) and in the pharmaceutical industry (-7.2%). Consumer goods and capital goods saw order intake fall by 7.1% and 9.4% respectively.
“For 2025, the situation does not look much better”
Machine construction (+1.2%) and the chemical industry (+1.7%) recorded slight increases compared to the previous month. Orders from abroad fell by 10.8%, with a very marked decline of 14.8% for regions outside the euro zone. “For 2025, the situation does not look much better. The uncertainties linked to the second Trump presidency add to the now well-known difficulties of the German economy. We are preparing for an extremely difficult year”underlines Jens-Oliver Niklasch.
Industry order books have fallen by an average of 1% per month since January, estimates Carsten Brzeski of ING bank. “And despite some more technical rebounds, there is still no trend reversal in sight for German industry”. The German government forecasts a decline of 0.2% in gross domestic product in 2024, a second consecutive year of recession. The first estimate will be known on January 15.
News-Swiss
