The Casablanca Stock Exchange closed 2024 with a historic performance, the MASI recording an annual increase of 22.16% and reaching a peak of 14,986 points on November 20, 2024, a level not seen since 2008. market capitalization also set a new record of 765.1 billion dirhams.
This increase was driven by several key factors, including the monetary easing policy initiated by Bank Al-Maghribcontrolling inflation to 0.8% in November 2024 (compared to 6.6% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2023), and the rise in real interest rates in positive territory for the first time since 2021. The beneficiary mass half-yearly report of listed companies (excluding Morocco Telecom) jumped 26% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a significant recovery.
Sectors such as real estate and construction took advantage of the launch of the new program housing assistance and perspectives linked to the organization of the 2025 African Cup of Nations and 2030 World Cup in Morocco.
An expected but moderate increase for 2025
For the year 2025, M.S.IN forecasts a continuation of the upward dynamic started at the end of 2022, although moderate compared to 2024. This progression will be supported by several factors: controlled inflation around 2%, allowing Bank Al-Maghrib to maintain an accommodating monetary policy; a drop in interest rate favoring arbitrage in favor of actions; as well as an improvement in the profits of listed companies, driven by the recovery of banking, construction and tourism sectors, and through investments in infrastructure.
Furthermore, the mobilization for reconstruction post-Al Haouz earthquakewith a budget of 120 billion dirhams over five years, as well as the resumption of real estate sectorsupported by the housing assistance program planned until 2028, should also contribute to this dynamic. There agricultural campaignin the event of favorable climatic conditions, could reinforce this trend. Finally, the privatizations planned, estimated at 9 billion dirhams for 2025 compared to 3 billion in 2024, and increased activity on capital marketsnotably via IPOs and capital increasesshould strengthen the attractiveness of the market for investors.
Back to basics
Despite valuation levels considered high, MSIN analysts believe that “the profitability of listed companies remains attractive”, we read in their research note. To take advantage of the opportunities offered by the market, they recommend a strategy focused on companies meeting criteria solid fundamentals : a good visibilitya attractive valuationa profit improvement and one financial strength.
They thus encourage investors to readjust their portfolios in favor of these values, in order to maximize opportunities in a market with high potential, but which requires rigorous and strategic selection.
