Bluff or reality? Donald Trump's threats are worrying

Bluff or reality? Donald Trump's threats are worrying
Bluff or reality? Donald Trump's threats are worrying

By challenging the sovereignty of certain Washington allies four weeks before his return to the White House, Donald Trump recalls that he has the profile of a disruptor-in-chief of the international order. His recent comments have revived fears dating back to his first term that Donald Trump will be more intransigent with U.S. allies than with enemies China or Russia.

But some suspect the billionaire of playing on his image as a former reality star and of wanting to make headlines to establish himself as a strong man, both abroad and in the United States. “It's hard to know how much he means what he says and how much he does it to get his little one-liners picked up,” says Frank Sesno, a professor at George Washington University and a former journalist on assignment to the White House. “He puts other leaders in the position of having to sort out fact from fiction,” he added.

“For national security and freedom around the world, the United States of America believes that ownership and control of Greenland makes it an absolute necessity,” Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. To which the Prime Minister of Greenland, Mute Egede, replied that the territory, rich in natural resources, was “not for sale”. His recent statements on Greenland echo those he made in 2019.

Earlier in the weekend, the billionaire had threatened to regain control of the Panama Canal and attacked the “ridiculous” rights of passage to which American ships are subject. He also pointed to China's growing influence over the canal. The President of Panama, José Raul Mulino, demanded “respect” for his country and assured that “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent areas belongs to Panama and will continue to belong to it”. “We’ll see,” replied Donald Trump.

“Is this a joke, is this serious? Imagine you are the president of Panama, how do you react to such a situation? You can't ignore it and your country won't let you do it. Such comments have a great impact,” says Frank Sesno. Donald Trump's rhetoric, however, could be part of a broader strategy. “His statements on Greenland are perhaps intended for China,” muses Stephanie Pezard, political science researcher at the Rand Corporation institute.

Just as Trump expressed concern about Beijing's influence in Panama, China's growing presence in the Arctic and its ties to Russia are “something that the United States is really concerned about,” notes Stephanie Pezard. But it could also be a signal to Denmark: “If you are too friendly with China, you will find us in your way,” even though Denmark and Greenland have been “very good allies within NATO,” continues the researcher.

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