Is a second truce in Gaza possible? In any case, this is what Hamas and two other Palestinian groups, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), suggested on Saturday, December 21, by affirming that a ceasefire agreement -fire was “closer than ever” for the Gaza Strip. However, this cessation of fighting will only be possible “if the enemy [Israël] stop imposing new conditions”these three groups announced in a joint statement, after meeting in Cairo on Friday evening.
Despite intense diplomatic efforts, no truce has been concluded since the one reached at the end of November 2023. But in recent weeks, negotiations have resumed, raising the hopes of many international actors. Franceinfo returns to this truce agreement in three questions.
1 What could the truce agreement look like?
According to Hamas officials, cited by AFP, it takes place in three stages. This development was confirmed by Egyptian officials to the American news agency AP. However, none of this is confirmed at this stage from Tel Aviv. “The less said, the better”an Israeli government spokesperson told AFP on Wednesday, refusing to comment on the agreement.
In the first phase of the six-week deal, Israeli civilians and soldiers are to be released in exchange for “hundreds of Palestinian prisoners”, according to Palestinian officials cited by AFP. During the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, 251 people were taken hostage. Of this total, 96 remain detained in Gaza, 34 of whom were declared dead by the Israeli army. According to the Egyptian channel Al-Ghad cited by HaaretzHamas agreed to release eleven of them, as part of the ceasefire agreement. For its part, Israel approved the release of 200 Palestinian prisoners, according to the Israeli daily.
Still during this first phase, Israel must withdraw its forces from the Philadelphia corridor, the strip of land controlled by the Israeli army along the border between Gaza and Egypt, according to Palestinian officials cited by AFP. The Israeli army “would also partially withdraw” of the Netzarim corridor, another axis controlled by Tel Aviv and cutting the Gaza Strip from east to west. She would also leave “gradually” urban centers and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip. Finally, this first phase must see the gradual return of displaced residents of Gaza City and the north of the territory, under the supervision of the Israeli army.
A second phase should allow the release of Israeli soldiers detained by Hamas in exchange for“a certain name” Palestinian prisoners, “including at least 100 sentenced to long sentences”. During this phase, Israel must complete its military withdrawal while maintaining forces in the border areas east and north of Gaza City. Finally, during the last phase of the agreement, “the war would be officially declared over” and rebuilding efforts would begin.
2 What are the blocking points?
Despite these advances, major disagreements remain. First of all on the exact number and names of prisoners to be released, on which Palestinian officials and Israel still do not agree, according to Egyptian officials cited by AP. Divergences also persist regarding the reopening of crossing points, notably at Rafah, on the border with Egypt. Hamas wants its reopening to be “entrusted to the Palestinian Authority, in coordination with Egypt and the European Union, in accordance with the 2005 agreement”.
For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly declared that he is opposed to a withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphia corridor, controlled by the Israeli army. In an interview given Friday to Wall Street Journalthe Israeli leader also expressed his intransigence towards Hamas: “I will not agree to end the war until we eliminate Hamas. We are not going to leave them in power in Gaza, [moins de 50 km] from Tel Aviv. This won't happen.”
Furthermore, if a Hamas executive assures AFP that “Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, the United Nations and the United States will be the guarantors of the application of the agreement”none of these actors have confirmed it. As for the governance of Gaza after the war, it is still widely debated, including within the Palestinian ruling class.
3 Do these negotiations have a chance of succeeding?
Despite these disagreements, the negotiations carried out in recent weeks have revived hopes of a truce agreement and a release of hostages in Gaza. On December 10, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said during a visit to Israel that he “the impression” that Benjamin Netanyahu was ready for an agreement for the release of the hostages kidnapped on October 7. Six days later, Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, said that Israeli negotiators “have never been so close to an agreement”.
The next day, Hamas claimed that the discussions were “serious and positive”after a visit by the head of Mossad to Doha, Qatar. On Thursday, the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken said he had “good hope” to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, without however “risk giving probabilities”. “It has to succeed. People have to go home”he insisted in reference to the hostages still held in Gaza.
Talks have accelerated since December, under the leadership of the Biden and Trump administrations, who are putting pressure on negotiators so that a truce agreement is reached before January 20, the date of Donald Trump's return to the White House. At the beginning of December on his social network Truth, the billionaire urged Hamas, without directly naming it, to release the Israeli hostages, otherwise it would be “hell to pay in the Middle East, and for those responsible who perpetrated these atrocities against humanity”.
This new impetus is also made possible because of the regional political context, which has been turned upside down in recent weeks. “There was the assassination [du leader du Hamas] Yahya Sinouar, the defeat of Hezbollah [au Liban]the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime [en Syrie] and, of course, Trump's victory in the United States, which causes strong pressure from Qatar on the Palestinian movement.” list with the Monde Michael Milshtein, former Israeli intelligence officer and Hamas expert. According to him, despite some positions of principle, the Islamist movement “may be prepared to be flexible in the timing and manner in which this will be implemented.”
