Canadian numerical advantage | The effect of Laine and Hutson is still awaited

The three goals that Patrik Laine scored in his first four games with the Canadian have rightly generated enthusiasm. Combined with the addition of Lane Hutson, the arrival of an elite shooter on the first wave of the power play suggested that a firefight was brewing.

That’s not quite what happened. Because Laine’s three goals are the only ones the Habs have scored on a power play in the last six games, on 17 occasions (17.6%). And if we go back four additional games, since Hutson was entrusted with the reins of the main unit, the record is even more modest: 4 in 27, or 14.8%.

This drop in performance compared to the entire first 30 matches (20.2%) can be explained in different ways. The substitution of two members of the same quintet necessarily requires adaptation. The identity of the two players militates in the same direction.

A right-handed attacker with a lightning shot, Patrik Laine is particularly comfortable in the left faceoff circle. It is also from this place that he has scored his three goals so far. However, it is also the favorite place of Cole Caufield, five of whose seven power play goals this season have been scored on this side. They must nevertheless coexist.

It has already been emphasized that the simultaneous presence of the two markers diversifies the threat of CH; They still need to not compete for the same territory.

Lane Hutson, as we also know, is a phenomenon in himself. Although he is a skilled passer, he also loves to skate with the puck. His teammates must therefore get used to this approach which differs from that of Mike Matheson, who has piloted the first unit over the last two seasons, and again during the first 20 games of the current campaign.

After his second game in the blue-white-red uniform, Laine had this amused reflection about the young defender: “Half the time I have no idea what he’s going to do. »

Over the following days, Martin St-Louis clarified that Hutson was learning to better integrate into a collective structure with a man’s advantage, and no longer relying primarily on his individual skills.

“Maybe he didn’t necessarily have to worry about that at other levels,” suggested the head coach. But the five players together are important. On the power play, there are small one-on-one moments, but it’s not one-on-one. He learns that. »

Obviously, the learning is not yet complete.

Anomalies

That’s it for the recent changes. From a global point of view, we can wonder if the positioning of the Canadian, at 18^e NHL rank – he finished in 27^e place last year – does not present some anomalies.

He benefits in particular from an exaggerated success rate of his shots on target. Over the last three full seasons, NHL teams have converted about 14% of their power play shots into goals. The Habs are currently at 17.9%, a value that would have placed them among the NHL’s elite in recent seasons. This inconsistency is reflected on the individual level; evidenced by Cole Caufield’s steroid success rate (38.9%) at present.

This efficiency bonus also comes from the fact that the CH frames few shots on the numerical advantage: only 1.35 on average for a two-minute minor penalty, on 31^e rank of the circuit.

While there is no direct correlation between shot volume and power play success, the two are not unrelated either. In fact, four clubs are simultaneously part of the top 5 in both categories. In this sense, if a correction were to affect the ranking, we can believe that the Canadian would lose weight. Unless you pick up the pace.

A look at where the shots are coming from further confirms that the offensive threat is not spread out in the area at all. On the contrary, it is concentrated in the two faceoff circles, especially the left, office of Laine and Caufield. This predictability obviously makes it easier for opponents on defense.

A model from the HockeyViz site clearly illustrates how little use is made of the front of the net and the crease – the orange spots are where the most shots come from. A quick comparison with the New Jersey Devils, one of the most successful power play teams, is particularly eloquent in this regard.

This special Habs unit is obviously not in complete disarray and continues to generate scoring chances. And we can assume that from match to match, the first wave will find more comfort with Laine and Hutson. The fact remains that with the problems this team is having scoring goals at five-on-five, a little help from the power play wouldn’t be amiss.