Fragile, the truce between Israel and Hezbollah? | Conflict in the Middle East

After more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the guns will finally fall silent for a truce.

For Lebanon, this pause will allow its population to catch their breath and see the extent of the damage caused by the intensification of Israeli bombings in the south and east of the country, as well as in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

For Israel, this ceasefire is supposed to offer respite to its troops and allow them to replenish depleted weapons stocksas Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated Tuesday evening. The truce will also allow the Jewish state to put even more pressure on its other rivals, notably Iran and Hamas, in the Gaza Strip.

Now that the deal is complete, several questions remain unanswered. First of all, how long will this truce last? Next, what are the exact terms of the agreement?

Both the Lebanese and Israeli authorities are very tight-lipped with information on the contents of the agreement, but if the information that has already leaked is anything to go by, the truce risks being fragile and precarious.

Indeed, one of the main sticking points which delayed the conclusion of any agreement between Hezbollah and Israel has not disappeared: Benjamin Netanyahu wants to retain the right to strike Hezbollah whenever he wants and where he wants, everywhere. on Lebanese territory, without the risk of attracting a response from the pro-Iranian movement.

In full agreement with the United States, we maintain complete freedom of military action in Lebanon, Mr. Netanyahu said on Tuesday. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack it.

Hours after the ceasefire took effect, Israel said it had opened fire on Hezbollah members who were approaching the border region. The Shiite movement affirms, for its part, that person has the right to prevent its members from returning home, to their villages.

The other point that could weaken the truce agreement is logistical.

According to several Lebanese and American media, the initial truce must be spread over a period of 60 days and monitoring of its application will be taken care of by an international committee, chaired by the United States.

Under the agreement, the Israeli army would commit to withdrawing its troops from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah would end its armed presence along the Israeli border by retreating north of the Litani River, ceding its place for the Lebanese army which, for its part, would deploy alongside the Blue Helmets of theHIM.

However, as is often the case in this type of agreement, the devil is in the details: who will withdraw first, Israel or Hezbollah? Each side demands that the other do so as soon as the ceasefire comes into force.

Just ten minutes after the agreement came into force, Israel warned residents of border villages not to return home until its army withdrew. This warning, however, did not dampen the enthusiasm of the displaced people of South Lebanon who returned home in their thousands, causing huge traffic jams on the highways.

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Return proud to your villagesalso told the head of Parliament Nabih Berry to the displaced people.

Finally, it should be noted that on the political level, Hezbollah and Israel both had to make concessions to reach this truce agreement.

The Lebanese Shiite movement had to go back on a major promise by dissociating itself from Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, Hezbollah opened the southern Lebanese front against Israel in October 2023 in support of Hamas, the day after the attack by its Palestinian ally against Israel. No ceasefire in Lebanon without a truce in Gazahe repeated for more than a year.

On the Israeli side, the Netanyahu government had sworn to eliminate Hezbollah by expanding its offensive against Lebanon, but it has still failed to achieve this objective despite the hard blows inflicted on the pro-Iranian movement with the assassination of several of its senior leaders.

An agreement with Lebanon is a serious mistake, a missed historic opportunity to eradicate Hezbollahreacted the Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, visibly very critical of the agreement.

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After a year of war in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, Israel has still not achieved the other objectives it had set, including the annihilation of Hamas and the return of all the hostages held by the Palestinian movement.

A pause in the fighting in Lebanon will perhaps allow the international community to refocus its efforts on the Gaza Strip to reach a ceasefire agreement there too.

Until then, the truce in Lebanon – however long it lasts – will offer some respite to the displaced on both sides of the border. Nearly 70,000 have fled Hezbollah rockets in northern Israel and more than 1.4 million have evacuated the regions daily shelled by Israeli aircraft in the south and east of Lebanon, same as in the southern suburbs of the capital.

After 417 days of war, the time has now come to take stock of the damage.