“I will be the Prime Minister of all French people“, said the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, this Sunday, June 30. Big winner of this first round of the French legislative elections, the successor of Marine Le Pen can already be seen in Matignon. But nothing has been done yet. D Much as the direct competitor of the far-right party, the New Popular Front, does not have to be ashamed of its score From its 27.99%, the alliance of the left can also dream of its accession to power. In any case, this is what the leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for his part, is most likely living his last days as Prime Minister of the country. replace him? What should we expect for the second round? Will France be plunged into chaos? To see more clearly, La Libre interviewed - columnist Nathalie Saint-Cricq. . Interview.
In view of the results of the first round of these legislative electionscan we say that Emmanuel Macron made the biggest mistake of his career?
Yes. He had a good reputation abroad and a leading role at European level. However, now, other countries consider that his choice discredits him and discredits France. The front page of Der Spiegel still says that the president has given power to the National Rally.
Furthermore, through this dissolution, Macron wanted clarification. But he got the opposite. The National Rally risks having an absolute majority. Macron loses 150 deputies from his outgoing majority. It’s catastrophic. I don’t even see what the lowest common denominator can be between all these components of the assembly in order to be able to have a government program or a coalition. What is the power unit? It won’t be the Republic in motion since there are only 100 left and they will be a backup group…
He definitely alienated a lot of French people? Including his own supporters?
Indeed. Emmanuel Macron has despaired tons of people in the country who do not understand and who are angry with him for having presented them with a fait accompli: either the RN or the New Popular Front. He had this irresponsible side and didn’t listen to anyone. There was this confidential poll carried out in February 2024, which was a simulation of what would come out of the polls if we dissolved the assembly and which predicted a majority for the National Rally within the hemicycle. We cannot therefore say that he did not take a risk and that he was not warned.
Do you understand what pushed the president? to make this risky bet ?
He wanted to make a political coup and dissolve immediately because he considered that the left-wing forces were divided and that the RN was not ready. To obstruct the RN, he wanted to do it immediately. But, ultimately, he is responsible for the early dissolution, for the victory of the National Rally. Whereas if he had waited until the fall, he could have explained to the French that he was forced to dissolve and that it was not a choice. What is more, there would not have been this fury against him and his camp which can explain part of the results of this first round.
National Rally President Jordan Bardella gave a winning speechthis Sunday, June 30. Is this really an uncontested victory for the far-right party?
Considering where they were thirty years ago, we can still consider that this is a rather exceptional rise. We have the impression that the strategy that has been developed for 10-15 years, namely de-demonization and the conquest of power, has worked. They owe it to their merit but also to the stupidities of others, such as the failure to take into account a whole series of problems.
They still spent the entire campaign saying everything and its opposite about pensions, about the price of energy, about their proximity to Putin… When you see the number of tactical errors they made, this result is an extremely impressive success.
Will the RN manage to win an absolute majority?
For now, we have a relative majority. But the RN members all say that if they reach 268-270, they will easily find Republicans to make up the difference. So I do not rule out at all that they will have an absolute majority by rallying other deputies.
Were you surprised by the success of the New Popular Front ?
I wasn’t surprised. Given where the left was, there was a kind of crazy hope that arose to be able to be there and to be able to come back. But if it had not been for the strategy of France Insoumise and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the New Popular Front would have been higher. In a way, their extreme behavior made them a stepping stone for the RN. Basically, the intrinsic personal faculties of the RN – trivialization, the fact of standing well in the assembly, etc. – seem to play a 30-35% role in success. But aside from that, the excesses of Jean-Luc Mélenchon also contributed to the breakthrough of the far right. These excesses even mean that people will prefer to choose the National Rally over La France Insoumise in the second round because it is safer.
At the New Popular Front, we fear an absolute majority of the National Rally
Do you understand that not all parties align with the voting instructions for block the RN ? The presidential majority was not very clear…
I think they will soon be and call for everything to be done to block the RN. However, they will keep exceptions for the most radical La France Insoumise candidates, like Louis Boyard. They do not want to take the risk of seeing voters experience the RN and LFI confrontation as a choice between the plague and cholera.
Do you consider it risky to give way to far-left candidates to avoid the National Rally?
What was especially a mistake was having done irrational things in every sense. In an interview, Emmanuel Macron said three months ago that the Republican arc included LFI. Then, he estimated that LFI and the RN were two extreme parties. It was total confusion. Personally, given the excesses of LFI and the artificial side of the alliance with the socialists and the greens who do not agree on anything, I consider that Mélenchon’s party is as dangerous as the RN.
They still spent three hours discussing the terrorist nature of Hamas and ended up not calling it that! I would never have believed that possible. I don’t have that left-wing romanticism that makes me say that as soon as you’re on the left you’re necessarily better than someone who’s on the right when you’re extreme. For me, these are two extremes that have positions that are very dangerous for the country and that brutalize political life. LFI is still a party where the leader is not elected, that throws members out… that is simply not democratic.
Do you fear a Mélenchon Prime Minister as much as a Bardella?
Mélenchon, that won’t happen. They are far behind, they will not have an absolute majority. In any case, the idea of the socialists and the Greens is to re-establish the center of gravity of the left in such a way as to avoid the imperialism of LFI. Two things particularly worry me now. First of all, I fear seeing tensions erupt in the country, seeing demonstrations opposing the extreme left and the extreme right. Second, I am concerned about possible economic collapse. The RN promised a lot of things. But, aside from that, the party continues to claim budgetary orthodoxy, pointing out the savings that must be made. We risk seeing a rise in interest rates, a rise in inflation, unemployment rising, purchasing power falling and businesses leaving France. This can all happen very quickly. Paradoxically, my second worry is that the RN will not be able to implement what it wanted to do because it is unrealistic and blocks everything. People would be furious with them. The “we haven’t tried them” side would become “we’ve tried everything, nothing works”. The fury against the RN risks transforming into hatred against the entire political class.
The French press reacts after the first round of the French legislative elections: “Historians will only have one word to describe what happened”
Do you see? Emmanuel Macron resign at the end of the second round?
No. He said he wouldn’t leave. Well, it wouldn’t be the first time he contradicted himself. If the RN has a very high relative, or even absolute, majority and Macron leaves, this means that the upcoming presidential election would be won by Marine Le Pen. Macron would then really have given all the keys to the RN: those of Parliament and the Elysée. As it was his dread to lead to a five-year term of Marine Le Pen, I cannot imagine such a thing happening. But we can also expect the RN to request his departure if he arrives at Matignon. Or that it is not requested but obvious if we have an ungovernable Belgian-style country and after 22 governments tried, 22 governments overthrown, we say that we must set the record straight and that Macron be blamed for the chaos.
