Rich and developing nations entered the final phase of negotiations on the financial aid figure at COP29 on Thursday, and the cards are starting to fall, with a more specific request from the huge G77+China group of countries .
The representative of this alliance of 134 countries from the South demanded from the EU, Japan or the United States “at least” 500 billion dollars in financing per year for the climate by 2030.
“We must not leave Baku without a clear number,” said Ugandan Adonia Ayebare, speaking in the large plenary hall of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, during an assembly called “kurutai” according to Azerbaijani custom.
These figures do not appear in the draft text published Thursday morning by the Azerbaijani presidency of the summit, which satisfied no one.
“It is clearly unacceptable in the current state of things,” thundered European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. He and his European colleagues are demanding more commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in the face of oil-producing countries that are slowing down, such as Saudi Arabia.
Irish Minister Eamon Ryan, however, confides to AFP that “this is progressing, it is obvious that this text is not final. It will be radically different, there is space for an agreement.”
The EU is at the center of the game at COP29, as the world's largest contributor to climate finance, and thanks to the lines of communication it maintains with both China and vulnerable countries.
– “Caricature” –
A 10-page provisional text was published by the presidency in the early hours, weighing up two diametrically opposed options on the structure of the new financial aid target that the conference is supposed to set.
After years of negotiations, the text only indicates “X” in place of the amounts, even if these are expressed in “trillions of billions”.
The next version is due to be released on Thursday “evening”. It “will be shorter and will contain figures based on our vision of possible landing points for consensus,” assured the presidency.
The current version “caricatures the positions of developed and developing countries”, deplores Joe Thwaites, of the NGO NRDC. “The presidency must propose a third option to reconcile them.”
This third secret option was put on the table by the Australian Chris Bowen and the Egyptian Yasmine Fouad, the two ministers responsible for bringing together the positions of the North and the South, but has not yet been revealed to the countries and the presidency guard up his sleeve, three sources close to the negotiations confirmed to AFP.
– “Political games” –
But at the COP, no one reveals their real red lines until the last day, theoretically Friday – even if the negotiators are preparing for an extra day.
At the risk of annoying the countries most threatened by climate change. “The time for political games is over,” argued the representative of the group of small island states (Aosis), Samoan Cedric Schuster.
The first option of the text published Thursday reflects the demands of developing countries, demanding that “X” trillions of dollars per year be provided by the public money of rich countries obliged to contribute according to UN texts – essentially Europe, States – United States and Japan – and by associated private funds, “over the period 2025-2035”.
That is much more than the 100 billion that rich countries had committed to providing them over the period 2020-2025 so that they can adapt to climate change and invest in low-carbon energies. An unrealistic option for rich countries, especially in times of budgetary tightening.
Especially since this option does not provide for any expansion of the list of contributors to countries like China, Singapore or Qatar.
The second option summarizes the point of view of rich countries: the financial objective would be “an increase in global finance for climate action” to “X” trillion dollars per year “by 2035”, without specifying the share of developed countries.
COP29 must set this new aid objective until 2030 or even 2035.
