Is the trap closing on the European Union (EU)? As the days pass at the 29e Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, the attention of negotiators and observers is focused, as expected, on one sum: the total amount of aid to be provided to developing countries in the next ten years.
A moment feared by the Twenty-Seven who find themselves on the front line, Joe Biden’s negotiators being in fact demonetized by the imminent arrival of Donald Trump in power. “We heard three proposals, 900 billion, 600 billion and 440 billion”declared, Wednesday, November 20, Australian Minister Chris Bowen, one of the two co-facilitators following the crucial text of this COP, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).
For weeks, faced with multiple demands (the Africa group mentions 1,300 billion dollars, the NGOs of the Climate action network ” at least “ 1000 billion), EU officials refuse to reveal their cards. A way of not focusing the debates on this question and of continuing to bring it to life on their requirements: broadening the base of contributors or, at least, accounting for aid from emerging countries, the integration of private investments and the fact that aid is directed towards the most vulnerable countries.
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Two days before the official end of COP29, the European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, came to procrastinate once again. “I don’t think there is any point in saying it publicly before we have established the basis of what this figure covers, he explained about this « quantum », that he hopes “ambitious and realistic”. At the moment, it’s as if we were presented with a shopping basket but without knowing exactly what’s inside. »
From 200 to 1300 billion dollars
A reference to the fact that the New Quantified Collective Goal is still a wasteland, with multiple options. On Wednesday, the COP presidency promised that it would unveil a version of the text overnight or early Thursday morning and then leave “enough time for the parties” to study it and discuss it before bringing them together. The final version could, at best, arrive Friday evening, which will probably not end the debates given the complexity of the subject. “Now the hard part begins”noted the Azerbaijani coordinator of the negotiations, Ialtchine Rafiev.
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