It was not made clear whether limits would be placed on Ukraine’s use of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), as have been the case for other U.S. missile systems. Their deployment could, at least initially, be limited to Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops seized territory earlier this year.
Since the first year of the war, Ukraine’s leaders have been pressuring Western allies to allow them to use advanced weapons to strike key targets inside Russia. They hope to erode Moscow’s capabilities before their troops reach the eastern front line and make it more difficult for them to strike Ukrainian territory. It could also serve as a deterrent in the event of future ceasefire negotiations.
The United States has long opposed the move, with President Joe Biden determined to avoid any escalation that he says could drag the United States and other NATO members into direct conflict with Russia , equipped with nuclear weapons. The Kremlin warned on Monday that this decision was “pouring fuel on the fire”.
The move comes in the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency, ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has said he would quickly end the war and which many fear will force kyiv to make unpleasant concessions.
What are ATACMS?
These ballistic missiles, developed by the American company Lockheed Martin, specializing in aerospace and defense, have a strike distance almost twice that of most weapons available to Ukraine (up to 300 kilometers). They can carry out targeted attacks on airfields, munitions warehouses and strategic infrastructure.
The United States supplied Ukraine with ATACMS last year and these were used to destroy military targets in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, but not on Russian soil.
What is Mr. Biden allowing Ukraine to do?
Mr. Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike deeper inside Russia, according to a U.S. official and three other people familiar with the matter.
The longer-range missiles will likely be used in response to North Korea’s decision to send troops to support Kremlin forces, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. Pyongyang’s troops are apparently deployed to help the Russian army drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk border region, where they launched an incursion in August.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the U.S. decision.
This is the second time that Washington has authorized Ukraine to use its weapons systems inside Russian territory.
In May, as the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region threatened to weaken Ukrainian forces, Mr. Biden authorized the use of HIMARS systems, with a range of 80 kilometers, to end this advance. This decision allowed Ukrainian soldiers to stabilize the fight for a while by forcing Russian forces to withdraw their military assets.
Why does Ukraine need longer-range weapons?
Ukraine has asked its Western allies to provide it with longer-range weapons in order to shift the balance of power in the war, where Russia has more resources, and to accurately strike airbases, depots supply centers and communications centers located hundreds of kilometers from the border.
It hopes the weapons will help blunt Russia’s air power and weaken the supply lines it needs to launch daily strikes against Ukraine and to support its ground military offensive in Ukraine.
If used at Kursk, the weapons would likely force Russian forces preparing counterattacks to push back valuable equipment and manpower, complicating battle plans.
Instead of Western weapons, Ukraine has regularly hit Russia with domestically produced weapons, some of which are capable of traveling up to 1,000 kilometers, but there are not yet enough of them to cause serious damage in the long term.
Will the decision change the course of the war?
The effect depends on the rules set for the use of weapons.
If the strikes are authorized across Russian territory, they could significantly complicate Moscow’s ability to meet battlefield demands.
If the strikes are limited to the Kursk region, Russia could move its command centers and air units to neighboring regions, which would lessen the effect of these logistical challenges. It would also mean that many of the valuable targets that Ukrainian officials have expressed a desire to strike may still be out of reach.
Ukrainian leaders are cautious about this announcement.
“Today, many media are talking about the fact that we have received authorization to take appropriate measures. But the blows are not delivered with words. Such things are not announced. The rockets will speak for themselves,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said of the announcement.
Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz noted that ATACMS would not be a response to the main threat Ukraine faces, namely Russian glide bombs, which are fired at more than 300 kilometers away, beyond the range of ATACMS.
Ukrainian leaders also said Russian forces had time to withdraw their assets out of missile range in the time it took the United States to make that decision.
“The decision came far too late. Had it been taken in early autumn, it could have disrupted the Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk region. And if it had been taken even earlier, it could have derailed the offensive in the Pokrovsk direction.
Glib Voloskyi, analyst at the CBA Initiatives Center
Additionally, the overall ATACMS supply is insufficient, so U.S. officials have questioned in the past whether they could give Ukraine enough to make a difference. Some Ukraine supporters say even a few strikes deeper inside Russia would force the Russian military to change its deployments and spend more of its resources.
The move could also encourage Britain and France to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles, also known as SCALP missiles, with a range of 250 kilometers.
