Times are tough for François Legault. The spell is broken. The bond of trust with the population is broken. Disenchantment sets in permanently.
The latest Léger survey/The Journal confirms it again.
Started in 2023 after its abandonment of the 3rd link, the CAQ slide continues. At 21% support, including barely 24% among French speakers, the CAQ is crossing its floor to land in the basement.
At 44% among French speakers, the Parti Québécois of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is ahead of the CAQ in all regions.
The reasons for the CAQ fall are well known. Improvised policies, among others on the 3e link. Deterioration of public services in health, education, DPJ, etc. A declawed nationalism.
The housing and homelessness crisis is escalating. French is declining. The deficit is historic. The string of dissatisfaction is long and the trend is heavy.
The question arises
At the same time, the PQ was able to unite dissatisfied Francophones while repatriating its lost sovereignist vote to the CAQ.
In short, the question arises. Will François Legault seek a third term in 2026? As I wrote in the spring, if the trend continues, the answer will be no. For what?
Ultimate goal
First, he fulfilled his dream of being prime minister. To do so, he even left the PQ party in 2009 and founded the CAQ in 2011.
Secondly, its real objective was to replace the PQ as an alternative to the PLQ by putting into play a centrist and non-sovereignist offer. Challenge taken up in 2018. The fabulous destiny of François Legault materialized.
Now, surprise. Since the 2022 elections, under PSPP, the PQ has risen from its grave. This is why, if nothing changes in the next year, Mr. Legault will not hang on.
After all, if he founded the CAQ, it was to try to send the PQ back to the dustbin of history. It is then impossible to imagine him taking the slightest risk of one day granting him victory.
