« AAs we face increasingly complex regional and global challenges, the Kingdom of Morocco will be, more than ever, a true friend and faithful ally of the United States,” says King Mohammed VI in a congratulatory message addressed to Donald Trump, following the announcement of his election to the presidency of the United States. Clearly, the victory of the Republican candidate, elected for a new four-year term, is highly appreciated by the highest authority of the Moroccan state. It should be remembered that, under his first mandate, relations between Rabat and Washington had reached an unprecedented level, notably with the announcement in December 2020 of the full recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the entire Saharan territory. .
In fact, this American recognition symbolized much more than simple diplomatic support: it was a pivotal moment, which made it possible, unexpectedly, to give new impetus to the resolution of the conflict in Western Sahara. . “The American decision has changed the positions of Spain, France and many other Western countries, knowing that the majority of Arab, Muslim, Asian and even South American countries do not recognize the SADR,” recalls former ambassador and researcher in international relations Ahmed Faouzi.
This strategic partnership, which continues to strengthen, has “withstood the test of time”, underlines the monarch. For Morocco, Trump’s decision in 2020 also brought a surge of more ambitious cooperation that extends from the Middle East to the African continent. With Trump’s return to the helm, the prospects for this strategic alliance seem set for an even stronger and more sustainable future.
This dynamic was also underlined by King Mohammed VI during his speech on the 49th anniversary of the Green March, where he reaffirmed Morocco’s commitment to its international partners and also recalled crucial elements of the Saharan issue, including abandonment of the referendum by the UN in favor of the Moroccan autonomy plan.
In a clear message to the personal envoy of the UN SG, Staffan de Mistura, who had raised the idea of a division of the Sahara territory, the King of Morocco recalled “the responsibility of the UN to close this file which has lasted long enough.” Since 2007, “all UN resolutions have insisted on the need for a mutually acceptable political solution and described the autonomy plan as fair and credible,” underlines the former diplomat. “All our partners, including our Western allies, should help close this issue, whether at the Security Council or at the level of the Fourth Commission of the United Nations,” he argues.
Trump back: excellent news for Rabat
If relations between Rabat and Washington are not new, Morocco is none other than the first country to recognize the United States as an independent country in 1777. Indeed, the first American embassy in the world, known now under the name of the American Legation, was established in Tangier. “Each American president likes to recall this particularity between the two countries,” Ahmed Faouzi tells us.
However, for some observers the Biden administration has shown a certain reserve, by still not opening the promised consulate in Dakhla. “Trump’s decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, irrevocable under international law, left the outgoing president, Joe Biden, neither room nor interest to go back,” explains Samir Bennis, expert in geopolitics. After more than three years of preparations, the Moroccan press is reporting on the opening of the American Consulate in Dakhla during the current month. A delay due to “technical preparations” and “security requirements”, reports the Moroccan weekly Maroc Hebdo.
This restraint was not to the taste of the Moroccan authorities, who were hoping for a more tangible commitment, according to political analyst Bennis. “Under the Biden administration, Washington avoided taking a resolutely assertive position and kept a certain distance in official speeches, trying to manage its relations with Algiers.”
Nevertheless, one thing is certain: on a strategic level, the alliance between Morocco and the United States has always been of crucial importance for Washington, which considers the kingdom as “an essential partner” in regional stability and in the promotion of peace, as emphasized by the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, during a meeting with his Moroccan counterpart last October.
“This re-election also comes at a key moment, where the dynamics of the Sahara issue are clearly favorable to Morocco, in particular with the Spanish and French rallying to the Moroccan position,” indicates Bennis. The return of Trump is therefore excellent news for Rabat, which hopes for an acceleration from the United States. “With this change in administration, we can expect a return to clear discourse and a diplomacy that fully assumes its strategic choices,” adds our interlocutor.
A balancing act
However, this position of Morocco carries risks, if a new Trump administration can offer Rabat additional diplomatic leverage on the Sahara, it would also accentuate the challenges of its balancing diplomacy, particularly due to Donald Trump’s attitude towards -vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and his alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Morocco, while having normalized its relations with Israel, has maintained a narrative of support for Palestinian rights, a position crucial to its relations with other Arab and African nations.
What political and economic issues for Morocco?
However, the re-election of the Republican candidate does not guarantee that priority will be given to this issue on the American agenda. Indeed, American diplomacy will have to face several major geopolitical challenges, notably the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as relations with powers like China, Russia and Iran. “Washington will probably tackle what it considers urgent to address, but will be more firm on this issue with those who are blocking its solution,” specifies Faouzi.
Known for his pragmatism, but also for his unpredictable character, Trump represents for Morocco both a valuable ally and a diplomatic challenge. “His re-election should push Morocco to strengthen its ties with Washington, underlines Bennis, while maintaining a balanced posture with other world powers.” An approach that he considers essential given the complexity of the international context.
This positioning is in reality a reflection of the Moroccan strategy which consists of not aligning with a single geopolitical bloc, explained by the economist Alexandre Kateb, in his analysis for the American think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This position reflects the historical DNA of Morocco since its independence, rooted in the heritage of the non-aligned movement,” he analyzes at Point Afrique.
For Morocco, it is a question of maintaining freedom of action, while cultivating a solid alliance with the Americans. In this context, Morocco is seen as a pillar of stability for the United States in North Africa. “It is a strategic ally in the fight against terrorism, migration management and the promotion of regional security and stability,” the kingdom’s ambassador to the United States, Youssef Amrani, told the magazine. American Leaders.
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On the economic front, the free trade agreement with the United States signed in 2004 made it possible to quadruple trade, from around 1.3 billion dollars in 2006 to 5.5 billion dollars in 2023, according to an analysis by the American think tank The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Morocco offers U.S. businesses a gateway to emerging African markets, leveraging our strategic location and extensive continental networks. Sectors such as renewable energies, aerospace and automobiles present particularly promising opportunities for American investments,” specifies the Moroccan diplomat.
Thus, Morocco positions itself as an essential strategic partner in North Africa. The Atlantic initiative launched by King Mohammed VI therefore illustrates the kingdom’s commitment to African development. “All the projects initiated by Rabat in Africa, such as the Atlantic initiative, the opening up of the Sahel or the Morocco-Nigeria gas pipeline make the kingdom a factor of stability in the region,” concludes Ahmed Faouzi.
