Keystone-SDA
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June 11, 2024 – 11:23
(Keystone-ATS) The unemployment rate increased slightly again in the United Kingdom, to 4.4% for the three months ended at the end of April, compared to 4.3% at the end of March, continuing an uninterrupted increase since the end of 2023.
“The unemployment rate has generally increased” since the second half of 2022, “despite a period of decline during the second half” of last year, said the National Statistics Office (ONS) on Tuesday in its monthly report in the labor market.
This figure is up significantly since the level of 3.8% posted at the end of 2023, according to ONS data.
But at the same time, the number of vacant jobs was up slightly for the period from March to May, at 904,000, compared to the end of April, according to other data published Tuesday by the ONS, a sign that many companies are seeking yet to recruit without success.
For its part, salary growth excluding bonuses stagnated at 6% for the three months ended at the end of April, but the increase in income in real terms, that is to say once the effect of inflation is taken into account, has accelerated to 2.9%.
These figures are closely scrutinized by the Bank of England (BoE), which has for months maintained a high key rate, at 5.25%, to try to bring inflation back to its target of 2%, but could loosen the pressure in the weeks or months to come.
British inflation marked a sharp slowdown in April, falling to 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since July 2021.
The labor market “is cooling, but not fast enough for decision-makers (at the BoE) to be able to confidently embark on the wave of rate cuts,” said Susannah Streeter, at Hargreaves Lansdown.
If it reduced its rate at its meeting on June 20, the news would be welcome for the conservative government before the legislative elections on July 4, for which the ruling party is widely expected to lose against the Labor opposition.
Because a high key rate translates for individuals and British businesses into a surge in credit costs, particularly real estate, which weighs on households already affected by inflation and the purchasing power crisis, and on businesses. .
But the labor market data, without clear direction, are “unlikely to immediately influence the Bank of England’s policy,” assures Yael Selfin, economist at KPMG, who believes that the central bank will wait further before lower its rates.
