Exit polls help us understand what happened on Tuesday among our neighbors to the South. Here are some keys to dissecting Donald Trump’s electorate.
Published at 12:45 a.m.
Updated at 5:00 a.m.
This is one of the main surprises of the 2024 election. The Hispanic community, traditionally supported by the Democratic Party, has deserted Kamala Harris. While Joe Biden had a lead of 33 points with this electorate, that of Kamala Harris shrank to 8 points. In Michigan, 62% of voters of Latino origin voted for Donald Trump. The bad joke of comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who compared Puerto Rico to an “island of garbage” during a Republican rally at Madison Square Garden, a week earlier, obviously did not allow the Democrats to refuel of Hispanic votes.
This is the basis of the Trumpist electorate. Six in ten white male voters voted Republican this year. New for 2024: men of Hispanic origin voted for Trump in a similar proportion. They were only 36% in 2020. The Democratic Party feared that Donald Trump would make a breakthrough in the black male electorate. The proportion of African American voters who voted for him remained the same compared to 2020, at around 20%.
Gen Z loves Kamala Harris. But with a lead of 13 points over her rival, she is doing worse than Biden who, in 2020, was ahead of Trump by 24 points in this bracket of voters. The youth vote for the Democratic candidate was particularly strong in key states of the Sun Belt. But in those of the Rust BeltHarris was less popular than nationally. In Michigan, the majority of 18-29 year olds voted for Trump.
The economy was not the main concern of voters surveyed as they exited the polls. The future of democracy was more worrying, and those for whom this issue was at the top of their priorities voted for Kamala Harris in a proportion of 81%. Those for whom the economy was the number one issue voted Republican by 79%. But if it was immigration, they ticked Trump by 89%! Immigration seems to be the theme that has most mobilized the electorate for the next president.
Trump made gains with two groups: Catholics and evangelicals. Evangelical Christians, a movement that includes the entire Christian nationalist right, supported it even more than in 2020. This group represents 22% of respondents. Because Joe Biden is Catholic, they supported him in 2020. But many of them instead chose the Republican candidate on November 5. Among the atheist or agnostic electorate (a quarter of respondents), Kamala Harris has progressed compared to Mr. Biden. Three out of four supported it.
Methodology
A consortium of four media outlets, ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC, commissioned a firm to survey 22,205 voters across the entire United States. Most were interviewed after voting on November 5 or voting early. Some were interviewed by telephone, by email or on the Internet. The results were published in the Washington Post.
Consult the analysis of Washington Post
