Who between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre will benefit from the best electoral momentum after the election of Donald Trump? It may be too early to tell, but there are some signs that give the Conservative leader an advantage, provided he knows how to play his cards well.
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According to an Angus Reid poll published Monday, the day before the election in the United States, 37% of Canadians saw Justin Trudeau as being best placed to work with Kamala Harris and the Democrats, compared to 30% for Mr. Poilievre.
With Donald Trump in the White House, it is Pierre Poilievre who is doing better in the eyes of Canadians: 38% of them believe that he would work well with Mr. Trump, compared to 23% for Prime Minister Trudeau .
The reign of unpredictability
The day after the elections, Justin Trudeau and his ministers showed themselves confident and ready to collaborate with a Trump administration, as they were able to do for four years.
“We have been preparing for this possibility for a long time and we are ready,” the Prime Minister declared Wednesday.
However, as political scientist Geneviève Tellier reminds us, “with Trump, you never know what to expect.” “Unpredictability is the word that comes to mind.”
Canadians remember that Justin Trudeau did “rather well” in the early years of Trump, particularly during the renegotiation of the free trade agreement, believes the University of Ottawa professor.
Things got slightly worse afterwards, after a few untimely outings by the president. “Trudeau, we saw him act. We know the relationship is not so good now.”
A test for Poilievre
On several issues, particularly with regard to the environment, the Canadian Republicans and Conservatives have several similarities. Canceling the carbon tax, for example, goes hand in hand with the agenda of a Trump administration, believes Mme Tellier.
For Pierre Poilievre, the issue lies elsewhere.
“He never had to comment on Trump’s statements. There he will have to do it. Are we going to like what we’re going to hear?” she said.
Despite his similarities with a Republican presidency, Pierre Poilievre will have to show during the electoral campaign how he intends to defend Canada’s interests against an American government which promises to be disruptive.
“It won’t be easy. If Pierre Poilievre is prime minister, or even on the electoral campaign trail, he will have to respond to Donald Trump. It’s going to be an important test, as was the case when Trump was elected while Trudeau had just arrived.”
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