On the eve of the American elections, the latest polls announce probably the closest results between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. The two candidates credited with similar scores may not succeed in winning the vote hands down, and one of the crucial issues will be the vote of minorities who seem mobilized to vote for or against one of the contenders for power.
Is a tie score possible between the two American presidential candidates? Current Vice-President Kamala Harris and the former US president are neck and neck according to several polling centers.
Estimates from the specialist polling site FiveThirtyEight place Kamala Harris slightly in the lead with 47.9% of voting intentions against 46.8% for Donald Trump at the national level.
The importance of Swing states in this duel
But it will certainly be the pivotal states that will make the difference between the two candidates. These states called “swing states” like Arizona, Pennsylvania and Iowa will be those which will decide between the Republican or Democratic camp.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue to engage in a battle on the eve of this election which should change the political landscape in the United States. Will the United States be governed by a president of color for the first time in its history or will the election mark the return of a president who has already revolutionized the presidential office with his outspokenness and his “outside” personality? standards”?
With 19 electors, Pennsylvania is by far one of the key states in this presidential election. According to polls, Donald Trump comes in front of the Democratic candidate with 50% against 48% of voting intentions. In Iowa, which had been a stronghold of the Republican candidate during the two previous presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, changed sides according to Des Moines Register which credits the former president with 44% of voting intentions against 47% for his rival.
The already very tight projections and the minimal gap between the two contenders for the White House raise the hypothesis of a tie scenario. This happened once in the history of the United States in 1800 when the two candidates had a tie in the number of electors, and it was the House of Representatives which had to decide between the candidates, but this scenario does not had never arisen again.
The American Constitution provides ways to designate who will inherit the keys to the White House. So, if this were to happen, the House of Representatives would have to choose by vote and the Senate would choose the future vice president.
Ethnic minorities could tip the numbers
This election, like others, will see the issue of minorities as an almost decisive factor in deciding between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Each in their own way tries to seduce this electorate could tip the scales for one or the other.
While the Democrats could count on the support of African-American or Hispanic communities, today, nothing is guaranteed to them, and their vote will be even more decisive in the “Swing states”.
African Americans make up 13.7% of the population according to the U.S. Census Bureau, while Hispanics and Latinos are represented by 19.5% of the U.S. population, representing the second largest ethnic group after ” whites.”
Traditionally, African-Americans vote to the left, more than 90% of them supported Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in these last elections, and Hispanics and Latin-Americans, despite their political disengagement, have begun to show further interest more presidential. There are 36 million registered to vote, representing a jump of 4 million compared to 2020 according to the Pew Research Center.
However, these voters have not won the cause of the Democrats who see the minority vote moving to the right. According to a New York Times/Siena College opinion poll conducted in November, 78% of African-Americans said they favored Kamala Harris.
