Who will win the US presidential election? This is the question that everyone is asking, as Tuesday's vote is announced as particularly close. And even if the pollsters try to play diviners, one fact makes their work particularly difficult: a few days before November 5, 10% of voters are likely to change their minds.
Proof of this uncertainty, opinion surveys vary greatly from one agency to another. According to a survey by Harris head in all swing states.
- Arizona (11 electors)
According to figures from the “Data for Progress” think tank, the Republican candidate is leading by one point in this southwestern American state, with 48% of voting intentions, compared to 47% for Kamala Harris. These figures are reversed for CNN, according to a poll published Wednesday concerning Americans likely to vote – and not all those registered to vote. It shows progress by the vice-president compared to the surveys in August, particularly among women, young people and Latin Americans.
The average of the polls drawn up by the site 538 shows a gap of 2.5 points between the two candidates in favor of Donald Trump, which widened throughout the month of October.
- North Carolina (16 electors)
Most polls show Donald Trump in the lead in North Carolina, a state he had already won in 2020. According to Fox News – a conservative channel which unquestionably supports the Republican candidate – he would lead by two points (49% compared to 47%). The 538 site, which takes the average of all the polls, puts the billionaire ahead by 1.6 points.
CNN figures, published Thursday, go in the opposite direction by showing that Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead in this eastern state, where she was neck and neck with the Republican billionaire last month. She remains at 48% of voting intentions but her rival loses one point (47%). One particularity should be highlighted: compared to the month of September, more respondents said they would cast a Kamala Harris ballot to block Donald Trump and fewer voted for the candidate only because they are favorable to her.
- Nevada (6 electoral votes)
The situation is very uncertain in Nevada. The “Data for Progress” think tank sees the vice-president leading by two points ahead of Donald Trump (49% against 47%), when the figures from Emerson College, revealed on Friday, give her the winner by one point (48 % to 47%).
On the other hand, a CNN poll shows that among citizens likely to vote, 48% support the former Republican president, compared to 47% for Kamala Harris. The average established by the 538 site shows a very small gap between the two candidates since August (often less than one point). On November 1, it stood at 0.6 points in favor of Donald Trump.
- Pennsylvania (19 electors)
According to a Washington Post poll, the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was one point on Friday, with the Democratic candidate in the lead. She obtained 48% among voters or those likely to vote, compared to 47% for the Republican. According to this same survey, the Americans who chose advance voting gave their vote for the current vice-president by a very large majority (63%). On the other hand, among those who have not yet expressed their opinion, 52% intend to put a ballot in the billionaire's name in the ballot box.
The “Data for Progress” think tank sees the former California prosecutor two points ahead of her competitor, 50% to 48%. On the other hand, according to Fox News, CNN and CBS/Yougov, whose figures date from Wednesday, the two candidates are neck and neck, with between 48 and 49% each, according to surveys. The sites aggregating all the polls (such as RealClear Polling or 538) note a reversal of the dynamic, with Donald Trump taking the lead in this state, a few days before the election.
- Georgia (16 electors)
The gap is so tight that the dynamic is reversed from one poll to another in this state long won by Donald Trump – but where Joe Biden won with a very narrow lead in 2020. According to figures published Friday by “Data for Progress”, Kamala Harris is a slight favorite in Georgia, with 49% of respondents declaring in her favor against 48% for Donald Trump.
On the other hand, a poll unveiled the day before by CNN gives the Republican candidate one point ahead of his Democratic rival (48% against 47%). These figures were reversed in August. According to poll aggregators, it is still the Republican who is in the lead in the state with 16 major voters, a few days before the election.
- Michigan (15 electors)
In this state in the north of the United States, bordering Canada, Kamala Harris's lead is emerging in most polls. According to CNN, whose figures date from Wednesday, the Democrat is even five points ahead of Donald Trump. The same day, a Fox News poll gave the vice-president a two-point lead (48% to 46%). According to figures from the Washington Post revealed Thursday, Donald Trump is in the lead among people registered to vote (47% against 45%), but it is Kamala Harris who narrowly wins among people likely to vote. go vote (47% versus 46%).
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
In Wisconsin, neighboring Michigan, most polls still show Kamala Harris in the lead. According to CNN, whose figures date from Wednesday, the Democrat would even manage to win 51% of the votes, compared to 45% for Donald Trump. A total that even climbs to 52% among Americans “extremely motivated to vote”. The average, established by the site 538 which is based on all the polls, gives a much less marked advantage to the former California prosecutor, only 0.6 points behind her opponent.
