Kamala Harris could win a Republican state in Tuesday’s US presidential election. According to a Des Moines Register and Mediacom poll, the Democratic candidate now has the lead in Iowa.
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The latest poll gives 47% of the vote to the current vice-president, compared to 44% for her opponent. This lead remains slim, since the poll’s margin of error is 3.4%.
However, this is a reversal of the trend, since in September, a poll conducted in Iowa gave 47% of voting intentions to Donald Trump and 43% to Kamala Harris.
This turnaround can be explained in part by the broad support of Iowa’s female electorate. In fact, 56% of Iowa women would support the Democratic candidate, while Donald Trump would obtain 46% of the women’s vote.
People aged 65 and over also lean heavily in favor of Ms. Harris (55% vs. 36%).
For those aged 35 and under, the gap is much narrower. 46% of these would vote for Kamala Harris, while 44% would support Donald Trump.
In the last six presidential elections, the Republican Party has captured Iowa four times. In 2020, Donald Trump won 53.1% of the vote in this state, compared to 44.9% for Joe Biden. In the 2016 election, he obtained 51.2% of the votes, while his opponent obtained a score of 41.7%.
In 2012, Barack Obama allowed the Democratic Party to win the battle of Iowa thanks to the support of 52% of voters in this state, compared to 46.2% for the Republicans.
