The Americans are preparing to take the last step before the presidential election on November 5 and although the polls indicate a very close race, it could very well be that the result will be revealed on the very evening of the election, says Jean-Marc Light.
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“I think that on election night, we will be able to declare the winner. Maybe very late in the evening, but I think we will be able to do it,” the pollster mentioned during an interview on the morning show Hi Hello.
“Hi Hello”
Moreover, several voters, and especially female voters, have already voted. Of the 160 million Americans who will vote (approximately), “there are already 64 million people who have [déjà] voted,” informs the president of the Léger polling firm.
And with these preliminary results, we see that more women are showing up at the polls, which could greatly benefit Kamala Harris.
“Hi Hello”, with data from CNN
“Women represent 51% of the electorate, but 56% of voters,” indicates Mr. Léger. “And that means that there are more Harris votes in advance voting because women vote 14% more for Mme Harris. So getting women out of the vote makes all the difference. Which means that, today, she has a lead.”
According to him, if Kamala Harris wins the election, it will be largely thanks to the votes of American women.
Trump undervalued in the polls?
However, all survey results contain a margin of error, often of the order of 1 to 3%.
In 2016 and 2020, the polls had precisely underestimated the votes for Donald Trump due to this phenomenon which is attributed to “shy Trump voters», these people “who were embarrassed to say that they voted for Trump”, informs the guest.
In the election against Hillary Clinton and the election against Joe Biden, “a lot of people with little education who don’t follow the news” voted for Mr. Trump on election day.
But it seems that this trend is no longer current.
“These people, today, we identify them very well because people are more embarrassed to say that they support […] Mr. Trump,” underlines the pollster. “So we don’t think the polls are underestimating Trump at this point. And that’s the key, because in the end, it allows you to have such a close election, it can go to one side or the other.”
Watch the interview with Jean-Marc Léger in the main video.
