It's the final stretch for the two main candidates in the American presidential election: Kamala Harris (Democrats) and Donald Trump (Republicans). There are only a few days left to convince the approximately 41 million Americans called to the polls. American citizens who have already made up their minds and want to weigh in as soon as possible have already had the opportunity to vote early. But four days before the solemn vote, it is very difficult to know whether Joe Biden's vice-president or the former president will win.
The specialized site FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates the various surveys carried out in the United States, gives a slight lead to the current vice-president, Kamala Harris. She leads national polls with 47.9% of the projected vote, compared to 46.8% for Donald Trump.
Summary of national polls for the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
Credit: 538
The New York Timesthis November 1, maintains this short lead for Kamala Harris (49% against 48% for Donald Trump). The curves are closer than ever but they do not intersect at the moment. The last time Donald Trump was ahead in the polls was this summer. Kamala Harris took over at the beginning of August 2024 and has never given up this place as fragile favorite since.
The forecast for the “New York Times”, November 1, 2024
Credit: NYT
Most polling institutes place Kamala Harris in the lead, but often only narrowly. These polls also give an indication of voting intentions, but the first election of Donald Trump and the surprise defeat of Hillary Clinton proved that the popular vote was not everything. The United States indeed has a federal system and a college of electors who are the true kingmakers. A candidate must receive an absolute majority of the electoral college votes (270 votes since 1964, i.e. half plus one of the 538 electors) to be elected. A very complex election to predict and which makes each state, each county even… a crucial issue.
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