The dramatic bad weather which hit the south-east of Spain caused the death of at least 158 people, the highest human toll in this country since deadly floods in October 1973.
Huge amounts of precipitation, presence of dry or artificial soils, lack of responsiveness from the authorities… Here are the factors explaining this terrible number of victims, according to several experts.
– Meteorological phenomenon of rare violence
According to the Spanish meteorological agency (Aemet), the equivalent of “a year’s worth of precipitation” fell in some localities in just a few hours. In Chiva, west of Valencia, the agency recorded no less than 491 liters of rain per square meter (49.1 cm).
This deluge – linked to a “cold drop” phenomenon, an isolated depression at altitude quite common at this time of year – was such that it caused several rivers to emerge from their beds and led to the sudden formation of enormous torrents of mud.
A “dramatic” cocktail, according to Jorge Olcina, professor of climatology at the University of Alicante, who links this event to “global warming”. When they reach such magnitude, cold drops can have effects “very similar” to those of a “hurricane”, insists this researcher.
– Dry and artificial soils
The violence of the floods can also be explained by the presence of dry soils in the affected areas, Spain having experienced intense droughts over the last two years. This encouraged a phenomenon of runoff, with the earth proving incapable of absorbing all this water.
Furthermore, the Valencia region, the most affected by flooding, is characterized by numerous artificialized areas, where natural spaces have given way to concrete, which is completely impermeable.
There has been “uncontrolled urbanization poorly adapted to the natural characteristics of the territory” in recent years, which today “amplifies” the risks, underlines Pablo Aznar, researcher at the Socioeconomic Observatory of Floods and Drought (OBSIS) .
– Densely populated area
The precipitation fell on heavily populated areas and therefore mechanically affected a large number of people.
The metropolitan area of Valencia (south-east), where the vast majority of deaths took place, has 1.87 million inhabitants. It is the third largest city in Spain.
Urban density “is a very important factor” in explaining the impact of these floods, underlines Pablo Aznar, for whom preparing cities for climatic disasters constitutes a “challenge” for the authorities.
– Rush hour on the roads
An aggravating factor played into the terrible toll of these bad weather: the time at which they occurred. The bulk of the rain fell at the end of the day, at a time when many residents were on the road.
According to the authorities, many victims died in their cars, surprised by the rising waters while they were returning home, or in the street, after trying to climb trees or lampposts.
A situation that could have been avoided if these people had been warned in time to allow them to return home earlier, according to Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading (United Kingdom).
– Lack of responsiveness from the authorities
Aemet issued a “red alert” for the Valencia region on Tuesday morning, calling for “great caution” in the face of “extreme” danger. But the Civil Protection service only sent its telephone alert message after 8:00 p.m. inviting residents not to leave their homes.
The lack of caution among certain residents is also called into question: several admitted to having gone out despite the alert, explaining that they were not aware of the seriousness of the situation, citing too frequent alerts.
“There were failures in communication”, but there is undoubtedly a “shared responsibility”, believes Pablo Aznar, who points out a problem in the Spanish “risk culture”. “The collective mentality is not yet sufficiently adapted to new extreme phenomena,” he insists.
An analysis shared by Jorge Olcina, from the University of Alicante: “we are going to have to do much more to improve risk education in schools, but also for the entire population, so that they know how to act in the event of immediate risk.
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