There we are. Biden is being thrown out of the White House today and tomorrow our friend Donald will occupy the place to give us a show he has the secret to. To be frank, there is no certainty that he will do better or worse than Biden. What we know for sure is that we’re going to have a lot more fun. You just have to remember what Trump did during his previous term to know that you won’t be bored.
Martin’s day
Today, the day of Donald Trump’s inauguration, the markets are closed due to Martin Luther King Day and we are not going to linger on the market, there is not much to say and it is tomorrow that it’s going to start. And it will begin in earnest with Trump coming to power. We have waited for almost three months and we expect everything to change. Here too, we are not going to come back to this, since we all know that he will deregulate, lower taxes, drill to flood the market with oil to lower prices, explode cryptocurrencies with a strategic fund and so on. and the best. Trump has already started to increase the mayonnaise with the marketing of his personal “meme coin”, which has been a hit with crypto enthusiasts and which has allowed some to never work again in their lives.
Fight, Fight, Fight…
On the morning of January 18, 2025, the world woke up to a delirious surprise; an unprecedented event in the history of cryptocurrencies that has the potential to completely disrupt the traditional financial sector. The President-elect of the United States – as they say – a few days before his inauguration launched the “Official Trump meme coin” ($TRUMP) just for his fans. – we might as well tell you that it has already started to set things on fire and that we are impatiently awaiting the sequel. The “Official Trump”, based on Solana, has experienced a monstrous explosion and is currently trading at $69 with a market capitalization that exceeds 10 billion – I admit that it is not very clear, since it changes all the time and very quickly.
The Trump Memecoin depicts a portrait of Donald Trump bleeding from his right ear, clenching his fist and shouting “fight, fight, fight.” This image was taken on July 13, 2024, when he was facing an assassination attempt. It is – supposedly – a tribute to the fighting spirit of the President of the United States. In short, the tone is set and it lets you imagine what Trump and his team may have in their plans for the future. The week will begin tomorrow for real and in the meantime, all of America will sit in front of their TV to watch Donald Trump take the oath of office and change the world. In any case, this is what is planned.
Farewell, Uncle Joe
But above all, we must remember that Joe Biden arrived at the White House in January 2021, after a campaign marked by a central promise: to restore the unity of a fractured country and restore momentum to an economy shaken by the pandemic. Spoiler Alert: in four years he has not succeeded – Four years later, his results are a contrasting mix of economic successes if the figures are to be believed, social struggles and geopolitical tensions. While the shadow of Donald Trump has hovered over the political landscape over the past 12 months, those that come next promise to be full of twists and turns for the markets and the global economy. It’s a near certainty.
The word inflation
One of Joe Biden’s immediate priorities has been to stabilize an economy severely affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Its massive recovery plan of 1,900 billion made it possible to inject money into private individuals, but also businesses and local authorities. Result: a rapid recovery in growth from 2021, an unemployment rate reduced to 4.1% and stock markets which finished at their all-time high or almost. Well, especially in Germany.
But all was not rosy. The massive injection of liquidity contributed to galloping inflation, reaching heights not seen in 40 years. Despite efforts to control prices, including through the Federal Reserve and a complex energy strategy, soaring energy and consumer goods costs have hit households. The fight against inflation dominated the end of his term, with aggressive interest rate hikes weighing on the economy.
Ecology
Joe Biden also stood out for his desire to position the United States as a leader in the energy transition. His Inflation Reduction Act marked a turning point, allocating hundreds of billions of dollars to promote green energy and boost American industry. But this ecological shift has sparked criticism, particularly among Republicans, who see it as an additional burden for businesses and a source of tension with European allies, also in search of competitiveness. On the social level, Biden has pushed important reforms, particularly on access to health and equal opportunities. However, he had to deal with a divided Congress, slowing down certain emblematic initiatives, such as the extension of workers’ rights or tax reforms. And if we focus only on Biden’s successes, we can expect Trump to dismantle just about everything, much like what Biden did when he became president.
A foreign policy under pressure
On the international stage, Biden sought to restore the United States’ role as world leader – spoiler alert again: it didn’t work. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan helped to tarnish this ambition, appearing as a logistical and strategic failure. Faced with the war in Ukraine, Biden adopted a tough stance, providing massive military and financial support to kyiv, but not without criticism of the impact of this aid on American public finances. Finally, the relationship with China continued to deteriorate. Between trade war, tensions on Taiwan and restrictions on technologies, Biden has maintained a hard line, strengthening a rivalry that now shapes the global economy.
-Rupture
As Joe Biden wraps up his term and his political career – to put it mildly – Trump’s return to the presidency is creating uncertainty in the markets and in diplomatic circles. Trump’s divisive style, his protectionist policies and his radical reforms, particularly on taxation and international trade, promise a clear shift. Investors can expect massive corporate tax cuts, a renewed focus on energy independence (with a likely return of shale oil) and the famous “drill, baby drill” policy as well as a policy economic favoring traditional sectors such as industry and fossil fuels. However, its tense relations with China and its penchant for unpredictable decisions could also reignite volatility in the markets.
And now ?
Biden’s four years have been marked by efforts to stabilize the economy and strengthen the United States’ place on the world stage, but the challenges remain immense: growing debt, social and geopolitical divide under tension. With Trump taking over the reins, a new economic order could emerge, with potentially spectacular consequences for markets and major public policy directions.
The days to come promise to be crucial. One thing is certain; America will continue to be a key player in the global economy, with decisions that will shape not only Wall Street, but the lives of billions of people across the globe. We are already looking forward to tomorrow to see what Donald Trump has in store for us and also what Elon Musk has in store for us. It’s not the summer that will be hot, but rather the end of winter.
Quarterly figures
For the rest, this week we are going to talk about economic figures – even if it is not the biggest week of the year, but it is mainly the quarterly publications which will get people talking. After the explosive figures from the banking sector, we expect heavy and spectacular things to happen. Netflix will be out, but also Texas Instruments and luxury which will continue to be talked about – LVMH will publish on January 23.
To put it simply, this Monday will be focused on the inauguration of Trump and the future of the USA and then, the markets will regain their rights by walking on eggshells depending on what Trump will announce. An essential thing that you will have to do, if it has not already been done; it’s subscribing to the American President’s account, for the next four years it will surely be more useful than a subscription to Bloomberg.
Have a wonderful day and a very good Monday – happy inauguration – for those who are interested, I will be on BFM Business at 11 a.m. on Lorraine Goumot’s show, “Tout pour Invest” and I will see you tomorrow morning as soon as I am back from Paris for a new stock market column and to talk about Trump, Trump and Trump again. Be strong, have a good start to the week and a good start to your term!
See you tomorrow
Thomas Veillet
Investir.ch
