Ukrainian grain exports are expected to fall sharply this season: according to the latest forecasts from UkrAgroConsult, they will only reach 16.2 Mt for wheat and 20.4 Mt for corncompared to respectively 18.3 Mt and 29.7 Mt for the 2023/24 campaign.
This is explained by a marked drop in production, especially in corn: the harvest only reached 26 Mt in 2024 compared to 31 Mt in 2023 and up to 35 or even 40 Mt before the war. It is the lowest harvest since 2017.
The cause of this decline: the heat wave which crushed the country in July. Wheat production would be around 21.6 Mt (22.2 Mt in 2023).
“In the months from September to November, the main destinations for Ukrainian corn exports are Türkiye (1 Mt), Italy (947,000 t), Spain (860,000 t), the Netherlands (477,000 t) and South Korea (244,000 t),” explains Julie Garet, head of the Grains and Sugar unit of FranceAgriMer.
Ukraine remains in fact the leading source of cereal imports from European Union countries. As of December 17, 67% of the EU's soft wheat imports (i.e. 2.9 Mt), 53% of its corn imports (4.9 Mt) and 54% of its barley imports (360,000 t) were of Ukrainian origin.
“The rapid progress of the Ukrainian corn harvest this year has enabled the country to record a particularly dynamic start to the commercial campaign despite a sharp decline in harvest compared to last year” — Marius Garrigue, agricultural markets specialist
This share is up for the three cereals compared to the 2023/24 campaign at the same period. “70% of Ukrainian wheat (imported by the EU) goes to Spain, corn mainly goes in Spain and the Netherlands », notes Clémence Lenoir, responsible for economic studies on large crops at FranceAgriMer.
“Ukraine has had an export support regime in place since 1is December, but we remain with a licensing system with countries bordering the EU zone,” continues Julie Garet.
This support scheme “would provide for minimum export price set each month, strengthening electronic exchanges between the National Bank of Ukraine, the State Tax Service and customs to improve procedures for refunding export VAT.
Exporters will also have to “record their data in the unified register of tax invoices, a mandatory step for the customs declaration of grain exports”.
Julie Garet also highlights the uncertainties weighing on what will happen in the coming weeks and months regarding the transit through Romania cereals from Ukraine.
First for political reasons: “the candidate who came first in the presidential elections declared that if he was elected, he would prevent all exports from Ukraine via Romania, but his election was invalidated » at the end of November, due to a possible influence and disinformation campaign on the social network TikTok launched by Russia, in favor of this pro-Russian candidate.
The other uncertainty regarding the passage of Ukrainian cereals through Romania is that “the transit via the Port of Constanța would have been declining for several weeks or even months because traffic is picking up on the Odessa side.”
