THE prix of wheat have fallen on Euronext and the walk French physics, in the wake of CBOT and in view of weak European exports. And this, despite the decline of the euro against the dollar between the sessions of December 18 and 19. It was time to take profits before the end-of-year holiday period.
The prices of but on Euronext and the physical market also fell, under pressure from a better-than-expected 2024 harvest. Indeed, Stratégie Grains corrects its estimate upwards from 57.9 Mt to 59.6 Mt, compared to 60.165 Mt estimated by Coceral.
The prices ofbarley fodder have retreated to the hexagonal places in the wake of soft wheat.
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On the CBOT, wheat prices fell, reaching the lowest tariff levels of last summer, under pressure from the dollar, which is in a strong position on the foreign exchange market. THE exports Americans could suffer from this situation in international trade in the coming months. This week, weekly US export sales are in line with expectations with 457,900 t.
Corn prices were down slightly yesterday on the US futures market. Trade suffers from strength dollar vis-à-vis competing currencies, after the last meeting of the United States Central Bank (Fed). The yellow seed found support with the USDA, which released sales weekly US exports, in line with analysts’ expectations (1,174,600 t). In Brazil, Agronegocios estimates the harvest of corn at 129.3 Mt, a much more optimistic position than that of Conab (at 119.6 Mt).
On the macroeconomic side, theeuro fell slightly against the dollar to $1.36, compared to $1.035 the day before. However, the drop observed this week could amplify in the first half of 2025 if the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to lower interest rates in the euro zone. In New York, the course of oil lost more than 2% during the session. Concerns about demand (particularly from China) are growing. Indeed, economic growth could slow down in 2025.
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Fundamentals:
- EU, corn, production : 59.6 Mt for the 2024-2025 campaign (Grains Strategy)
- EU, wheat, production : 126.6 Mt for the 2025-2026 campaign, compared to 114.2 Mt in 2024-2025 (Grains Strategy)
- Brazil, corn, production : 129.3 Mt for the 2024-2025 campaign (Agronegocios)
Commerce international :
- United States, wheat, weekly export sales : 457,900 t (USDA)
- United States, corn, weekly export sales : 1,174,600 t (USDA)
French physical markets from December 19, 2024 (July base for cereals)
| Soft wheat | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Dunkirk rendering | 220/11 miller Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 226,50 | N | -4,00 |
| Rendering La Pallice | 76/220/11 Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 226,50 | N | -4,00 |
| Rendering Rouen | 76/220/11 Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 226,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Pontivy/Guingamp rendering | forage 74 kg/hl base, 72 kg/hl mini Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 222,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Fob Moselle | miller Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 229,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Fob Rouen | FCW Superior A2 class 1 major. included Harvest 2024 | dec. | 235,45 | | -3,60 |
| | FCW Medium A3 class 2 major. included Harvest 2024 | dec. | inc. | | |
| Fob La Pallice | FAW Superior A2 class 1 major. included Harvest 2024 | dec. | 236,25 | | -4,00 |
| Departure from Marne | BPMF 220 Hagberg Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 227,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Departure from Eure/Eure-et-Loir | BPMF 76 kg/hl Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 220,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Departure South-East | miller Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 238,00 | N | |
| Durum wheat | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Rendering Port-la-Nouvelle | semolina standards Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 295,00 | N | 0,00 |
| Departure from Eure/Eure-et-Loir | semolina standards Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 287,50 | N | 0,00 |
| Departure South-East | semolina standards Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 285,00 | N | 0,00 |
| But | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Bordeaux rendering | Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 196,50 | N | -2,00 |
| Rendering La Pallice | Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 203,50 | N | -2,00 |
| Pontivy/Guingamp rendering | Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 202,50 | N | -2,00 |
| Fob Bordeaux | Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 200,50 | N | -2,00 |
| Fob Rhin | Harvest 2024 | Dec-June | 216,00 | N | -2,00 |
| Departure South-East | Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 212,50 | N | |
| Feed barley | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Rendering Rouen | 62-63 kg/hl Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 201,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Pontivy/Guingamp rendering | Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 204,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Fob Moselle | without limit. orgettes Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 186,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Departure from Eure/Eure-et-Loir | Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 190,00 | N | -4,00 |
| Departure South-East | 62/63 kg/hl Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 215,00 | N | |
| Malting barley – Winter 6 rows | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Fob Creil | Faro 11.5% max Port 500 t Harvest 2024 | Jan-Jun | 223,00 | N | 0,00 |
| Malting barley – Spring | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Fob Creil | Planet 11.5% max Port 500 t Harvest 2024 | Jan-Jun | 242,00 | N | 0,00 |
Quotations of milling products from December 17, 2024
| Its fine soft wheat | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Departure from Ile-de-France | | available. | 139,00-141,00 | T | |
| | pellets | available. | 151,00-153,00 | T | |
| Half-white remolding | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Departure from Ile-de-France | | available. | 169,00-171,00 | T | |
| Low flour | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| Departure from Ile-de-France | | available. | 159,00-161,00 | T | |
Commercial quotes for dairy products from December 19, 2024
| Milk powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| | NBPL departure at 30 days 5% H BT bulk | available. | 2490,00 | T | |
| Whey powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| | NBPL departure at 30 days, BILA pH 6 bulk | available. | 865,00 | T | |
Dollar/euro evolution of December 19, 2024
| Devise | Closing value |
| 1 dollar US | 0,9620 euro |
| 1 euro | 1,0395 dollar |
Chicago Futures Market Closes December 19, 2024
| Raw materials | Fence | Chicago |
| Wheat | 533,00 | cents/wood. |
| But | 440,75 | cents/wood. |
| Ethanol | 2,161 | $/gallon |
Closing of the Euronext futures market on December 19, 2024
| Milling wheat (Euronext) |
| Echéance | Fence |
| Mars 2025 | 229,00 |
| May 2025 | 232,75 |
| Sept. 2025 | 222,50 |
| Volume | 70784 |
| Corn (Euronext) |
| Echéance | Fence |
| Mars 2025 | 205,50 |
| June 2025 | 213,00 |
| August 2025 | 218,50 |
| Volume | 2815 |
International market quotes from December 19, 2024
| Energy | Echéance | Closing value |
| Oil (Nymex) | Feb. 2025 | 69,38 $ |
| Ocean freight indices | from December 19 | Variation |
| Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 976 | -52,00 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) | 964 | 7,00 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) | 1079 | -158,00 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) | 944 | -3,00 |
| Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) | 586 | -7,00 |
