THE prix of soft wheat progressed somewhat between December 11 and 18, 2024 on Euronext and so on the walk French physique, taking into account the presence of a certain international demand, and difficult growing conditions in Russia.
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To illustrate this international interest, let us cite theSaudi Arabiawhich purchased 804,000 t of hard wheatat $268.87/t C&F, February-April delivery. There Tunisia also purchased 100,000 t of goods. On the side of the Russiapoor crop planting conditions worry operators. Analyst SovEcon significantly lowered its forecasts for production 2024-2025, going from 81.7 Mt to 78.7 Mt. However, several bearish elements have tempered the bullish context. The main thing: good harvest prospects in Australia and in Argentine. Concerning the latter, the Rosario Stock Exchange estimates the 2024 harvest at a level close to 20 Mt. In Australia, local authorities for their part are counting on a harvest exceeding 30 Mt. In France, the statistical services of the Ministry of Agriculture (Agreste) estimate in its latest monthly report an increase in semis of soft winter wheat between 2023 (2024 harvest) and 2024 (2025 harvest), increasing from 4.15 Mha to 4.5 Mha, due to more favorable climatic conditions. This level remains quite low compared to what has been observed in recent years. The funds, which had somewhat oversold the market, are now buying back their positions at the end of the year.
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On the French physical market, the market is calm at the end of the year, even if the feed wheat shows renewed interest on the part of the Benelux. The premium has also increased for feed wheat. There flour mill French is also purchasing, particularly for the end of the 2024-2025 campaign. Business began with the 2025 harvest, particularly in the Center and the East. The demand is also firm in starch factory on the 2024 harvest. In La Pallice, we can report a lack of wheat availability. In the South-West, freight prices towards theSpain have appreciated, which is slowing down business at the end of the year. Of the industrial Spaniards have raised freight prices to carry out seed business on time. sunflower which had fallen behind schedule due to the late harvest. The trade of cereals suffers from this increase in logistics costs and the activity is concentrated on the domestic market.
Traffic interrupted on the Moselle
The costs of fret fluvial on the basin of the Seine did not change between December 11 and 18, despite sustained activity before the closure of storage organizations this weekend. On the Rhineif the prices of river transport are unchanged from one week to the next, the level of the river falls, at the start of the period of low water.
Regarding thelock from Müden in Germanythe damaged doors have been removed, two new doors, to be adapted to the dimensions of the damaged lock, would be available. It remains to carry out a diagnosis of the concrete structure and replace the gas spring for opening the doors, which has malfunctioned. For now, “the German authorities are very responsive. The Müden lock has been developed in order to be able to carry out degraded lockages. Therefore, all boats blocked can be released »comments Jean-Laurent Herrmann, river transport advisor. The 70 blocked boats will in fact be released slowly, thanks to the installation of removable lock doors for manual handling. If some chargers French companies with installations in the impacted area anticipate a resumption of traffic during the month of February, the German authorities are less optimistic. As soon as this “rescue operation” is completed, the repair work will really begin and should last around three months, reports Jean-Laurent Herrmann.
This lock accident puts the shippers under pressure. Let us recall that the Moselle is a major river axis. “Each year, 8 Mt of goods use this waterway”underlines a broker. Thus, four months of closure of the lock for work would represent 2 Mt of untransported goods, which will have difficulty finding a logistical alternative. Multimodal solutions exist using the Rhine and the Meuseor even the Seine basin, but they are limited. If transfers by truck are implemented, the use of the train is more complex, storage organizations and users not all being connected to the rail network.
The editorial staff
But
Evolution at the price margin
Corn prices moved within narrow ranges between December 11 and 18, torn between various bullish and bearish elements. On the bullish side, let us cite the United States sales in recent days, demonstrating good international demand. Add to this the authorization by the United States authorities of the sale of gasoline containing more ethanol. On the bearish side, note the announcement by the Chinese operator Sinograins to stop sales on the domestic market of goods originating, in the majority, from Brazilian and American imports. This is to support local production. At the national level, Agreste has increased its estimate of 2024 production, going from 14.6 to 14.9 Mt (including areas dedicated to seed production) between the months of November and December, a level in compliance with the market expectations.
In France, supplements are made for food manufacturers at the end of the campaign, but the share of corn in formulations is reduced and the market remains very busy.
Feed barley
Fall in port premiums for fodder quality
Port premiums have eroded somewhat, in the face of demand which is losing intensity. Agreste estimates a slight decline in barley areas, at 1.228 Mha this year (2025 harvest), compared to 1.238 Mha (2024 harvest) last year. Business is focused on the domestic market rather than the port. Availabilities are low because storage organizations provide little supply to the market.
Malting barley
Prices FOB Creil and Moselle aligned
Winter malting barley prices on the French physical market followed a stable (2025 harvest) to slightly upward (2024 harvest) trend between December 11 and 18. In spring varieties, prices have increased slightly over the current and next commercial seasons. Note that due to a logistical problem on the Moselle (damaged lock at Müden in Germany), the quotations for FOB Moselle and Fob Creil are almost identical, all varieties combined, while in general FOB Moselle is a ten euros more expensive than FOB Creil.
Durum wheat
Waiting for the results of calls for tenders in the Maghreb
The national sole declines between 2023 and 2024, going from 210,000 ha to 206,000 ha, corresponding to the forecasts of many private analysts. On the international scene, Tunisia has positioned itself for the purchase of 100,000 t of durum wheat, and Algeria for 400,000 t.
The French market remains very calm and expectant regarding the results of these calls for tenders. These could be won by Canada and/or Australia.
Oats
Price reduction
The prices of black oats and white oats fell by €5/t on all quotation places, with the exception of Pontivy where those of black oats remained stable. Buyers are short of oats. Triticale prices are up €10/t in Allier and remain unpriced for other market places. Those of milling and fodder rye remain unquoted.
Kévin Cler and Adèle d’Humières
To watch
Soft wheat
- Growing conditions in Russia, currently degraded
- Possible new harvest forecasts in Russia for 2025.
- Harvest levels in Argentina and Australia, good for the moment.
- Competitiveness of Argentinian origins.
- French port demand, which remains amorphous for the moment.
Orgy
- Confirmation of the decline in French port demand.
- Level of Australian harvests, expected to be high.
But
- Level of US exports.
- Dynamics of ethanol production in the United States.
- Status of demand from EU countries for yellow seed.
- Confirmation of the drop in Chinese demand.
Kevin Cler
