Since the summer of 2022, the French real estate sector has been suffering. The continued decline in transactions, coupled with a decrease in prices, has hit not only professionals in the sector, but also the French in their access to property.
« However, a slight improvement in spring 2024, accompanied by a relative stabilization at the start of the school year, suggests a potential recovery », assure the Notaries of France.
« The real estate crisis has put the sector to the test over the past two years, but it also highlights the importance of a stable economic and political framework to restore buyer confidence », Explains Me Priscille Caignault, member of the office of the Superior Council of Notaries in charge of real estate. However, the political uncertainty linked to the dissolution of the National Assembly has compromised this fragile momentum.
Fall in transactions
The year 2024 stands out for a reduction in real estate transactions, reaching an estimated volume of 750,000 for the whole year, compared to 935,000 in 2023.
At the same time, building land is experiencing an even more marked fall. Cumulatively over twelve months, the number of transactions fell from 75,000 in the second quarter of 2023 to only 43,000 in the third quarter of 2024, a drop of almost 50%. This sharp decline reflects the structural difficulties of the new construction market.
Price stabilization: an encouraging signal
Prices of existing homes recorded an annual decline of 3.9% nationally in the third quarter of 2024, with similar results for apartments and houses. However, projections for the fourth quarter indicate an attenuation of this decline: -1.6% in mainland France, -0.4% in the provinces, and -3% in Île-de-France.
At the end of January 2025, the Notaries of France forecast an even smaller annual decline: -1.2% for mainland France, -0.4% for the Province, and -2.5% for Île-de-France . This stabilization could mark a turning point after two years of decline.
A contrasting evolution of real estate purchasing power
Despite the price drops, real estate purchasing power remains limited by rising interest rates. In September 2024, a household could finance on average 55 square meters for an old apartment in mainland France, an increase of one square meter over one year. For an old house, this surface area reached 92 square meters, an increase of 3 square meters.
What horizons for 2025?
« Outlook for 2025 remains uncertain », note the Notaries of France. Although there are positive signals, including price stabilization and a slight recovery in confidence, there are many factors that could undermine this trend.
Political and economic instability, combined with persistently high interest rates, are weighing on purchasing decisions. Thus, for Me Priscille Caignault, “ economic and political stabilization will be crucial to reverse the trend. »
