Syria and Russia do not seem to have decided what the future of Russian military bases will be after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.
Ten days after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, has Russia decided to leave Syria, of which it was a strong ally for years? For the moment, “neither the Kremlin nor the interim Syrian government seem sure of the future of Russian bases in Syria”, assures the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a report published this Tuesday, December 17.
However, images from Maxar Technologies, an American company specializing in satellite imagery, show that Russia is preparing above all for the possibility of leaving the territory liberated from the government of Bashar Al-Assad.
Footage that shows “Russia’s continued visible preparations at Hmeimim air base and Tartous port to withdraw its forces despite allegations and reports that the interim Syrian government may extend rights to Russian bases.”
Dating from December 17, these satellite images show a Russian Il-76 transport plane and dozens of military vehicles on the tarmac of Hmeimim air base and dozens of Russian military vehicles assembled at the port of Tartous. Russia is likely adopting this temporary posture and withdrawing some of its assets in case HTS decides to deny Russia a continued military presence in Syria.
Satellite imagery taken by @Maxar today at Russia’s Tartus naval base in Syria shows newly-arrived military trucks and personnel carriers but no military or transport-associated ships. Higher-definition image on the right. pic.twitter.com/4A0evGtUZn
— Evan Hill (@evanhill) https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1869078775994180002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What future for Russia in Syria?
Various sources affiliated with HTS have indeed made conflicting statements to Western media about the status of Russian bases, suggesting that there is likely some dissonance even within the transitional Syrian government over its plan for Russian bases.
Citing an HTS source, The Economist said on December 17 that Russia and Syria’s new leaders have “now entered into negotiations” and that HTS “has conceded that it will likely allow Russia to retain some or all of its basics.”
Conversely, Al Araby al Jadeed, the Qatari media based in the United Kingdom, reported on December 16 that sources “close to the Department of Military Operations [dirigé par HTS]” in Syria said that Russia would withdraw all its military forces from Syria within a month, as reported by ISW.
In this case, the American think tank indicated that the HTS would “face significant international pressure to completely eliminate the Russian presence in Syria”. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said on December 16 that the EU would discuss the possibility of closing all Russian bases in Syria “with the country’s new leaders.”
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that it was “closely monitoring” the evolution of the situation in Syria and that Moscow believes that there is a path towards a “sustainable normalization of the situation in Syria… thanks to the launch of a inclusive intra-Syrian dialogue.
