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As Syria begins a post-Assad transition, questions about its political and economic future are arousing keen interest in Lebanon. The historical, economic and geopolitical ties between the two countries place Lebanon in a delicate position, between opportunities to redefine its relations with its neighbor and challenges linked to security and migration issues.
Historical and economic ties between the two countries
For decades, Syria and Lebanon have had a complex relationship, marked by economic interdependence and political interference from Damascus in Lebanon. Syrian tutelage, which lasted until 2005, left a lasting imprint on Lebanese politics, fueling both tensions and collaborations.
Economically, Syria remains a crucial partner for Lebanon. Trade, transit of goods and agricultural complementarity create an interdependence which could be strengthened in a context of Syrian reconstruction.
Persistent security challenges
The post-Assad transition also raises major security concerns. The threat from extremist groups, border control and the circulation of weapons constitute strategic issues for Lebanon.
Bilateral security agreements, although often criticized for their imbalance, could be revised to respond to new regional realities.
The weight of Syrian refugees in Lebanon
With nearly 1.5 million Syrian refugees on its territory, Lebanon bears an immense burden. This humanitarian crisis, aggravated by the country’s economic fragility, requires strengthened cooperation with Syria and the international community.
Syrian reconstruction could offer an opportunity for some refugees to return, but the political and security conditions in Syria remain a major obstacle.
The geopolitical ambitions of the great powers
Lebanon’s role in post-Assad Syria is not limited to a bilateral relationship. Great powers, such as Iran, Russia and the United States, play a key role in redefining regional balances.
Lebanon, often seen as an area of rivalry between these actors, could take advantage of its strategic position to strengthen its diplomatic role. However, this opportunity requires internal political stability and a clear vision of its national interests.
A necessary redefinition of bilateral relations
The transition in Syria could be an opportunity for Lebanon to rethink its relations with its neighbor. More balanced economic cooperation, strengthened security agreements and concerted management of migratory flows could constitute pillars of a new era of collaboration.
New perspective
Lebanon must approach post-Assad Syria with a clear strategy, based on strengthened sovereignty and pragmatic cooperation. Rather than limiting itself to historical dependence, it is time for Beirut to redefine a partnership that reflects contemporary realities, while taking into account regional and international interests.
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