Water consumption could up to double in 2050 if current habits continue, according to France Stratégie

Already, “in ten years, renewable fresh water, that is to say that which is renewed through the water cycle, has decreased by 14%”, explains the organization responsible for evaluate public policies.

Water consumption could up to double in 2050 in France if global warming intensifies and if current usage trends continue, due in particular to the increase in needs linked to irrigation, estimated Monday January 20 a report from France Stratégie. This study was commissioned in the fall of 2023 by the Prime Minister at the time, Elisabeth Borne, a few months after the implementation by the government of the water plan, intended to limit the consumption of this resource promised to become scarce due to of climate change.

Already, “in ten years, renewable fresh water, that is to say that which is renewed through the water cycle, has decreased by 14%. As a result, tensions between uses are emerging in certain territories and at certain times of the year”notes France Stratégie.

To carry out this work, the organization responsible for evaluating public policies relied on three scenarios: the first, known as “trend”is akin to maintaining current consumption habits without changing anything. The second, of “public policies”, presupposes the application of restriction and adaptation measures already in place. Finally, a scenario “breakup” involves switching to economical water use.

France Stratégie added different projections of global warming, with dry or humid spring-summers, measuring the impact on seven sectors of activity: livestock, irrigation, energy, industry, tertiary, residential and navigation canals. In the event of global warming of +2.4°C between 2041 and 2060 (one of the IPCC scenarios) with significant droughts, water consumption could increase by 102% between 2020 and 2050 in the scenario. “trend” and increase by 72% in the scenario “public policies”assures the report.

Only the scenario “breakup” can contain the increase in consumption to +10%, even if there will be sometimes strong variations depending on the regions and times of the year.