The drop in births in France in 2023 is on an unprecedented scale since the end of the baby boom, according to INSEE

NATALITY – The drop in births is significant. In 2023, 677,800 babies were born in France, or 6.6% less than in 2022. This is the sharpest drop in the birth rate observed in one year since the end of the baby boom, according to INSEE , which publishes these figures this November 14. The trend is not new: births decreased by almost 20% between 2010 and 2023.

According to the annual census of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, births in France therefore fell by 6.6% between 2022 and 2023, after a rebound in 2021. “ This is a decline on a scale not seen since the end of the baby boom in the mid-1970s.underlines INSEE in its study. Even in 1983 and 1993, years of sharp decline in a context of poor economic conditions, the decline was less severe. »

If the drop in the birth rate in France is therefore very marked in 2023, it is part of an underlying trend (see graph below). Since 2010, the last high point recorded, there have been fewer and fewer births, despite a slight rebound in 2021 post-Covid crisis: they fell by exactly 19.8% between 2010 and 2023.

A clearer decline among 25-34 year olds

Although INSEE does not give reasons for this drop in its report, several elements are interesting. When we go into detail, the decrease between 2022 and 2023 concerns all age groups. Including among older women, which was not the case before. “ Previously, with the postponement of childbearing age, births to mothers aged 35 or over increased », notes INSEE. This is not the case in 2023: the drop is 4.2% for mothers aged 35 to 39 and 5% for those aged at least 40.

Another new fact, among 25-34 year olds: births are falling more than the average. We observe a drop of 7.4% for mothers aged 25 to 29 and 8.6% for those aged 30 to 34. A more pronounced trend than the averages observed since 2010. As for those under 25, the annual decrease is stable.

In 2023, the majority of babies (60%) will be born to mothers who are between 25 and 34 years old, which was already the case in 2010 (63%). 28% of mothers are at least 35 years old – among whom 7% are at least 40 years old – compared to 21% in 2010 (see graph below).

The decline is accentuated in rural areas

When we look at geographical areas, INSEE emphasizes that the birth rate is falling everywhere between 2022 and 2023, including in the overseas departments even if the trend is a little less pronounced there.

In rural areas, which concentrate around a quarter of births, births are falling again, although they had been spared during the Covid crisis. The drop is 9.1% for peri-urban areas and 8.4% for others. Conversely, in large urban centers – Paris or outside Paris –, which account for 45% of births, the reduction in births is slightly lower than the average (5%).

In urban municipalities of intermediate density, we find figures close to the national average.

Same overall trend in Europe

The drop in births between 2022 and 2023 is more marked in France than in the European Union as a whole (5.5% in the EU as a whole). However, it is less if we take the period between 2019 and 2023: it is 10% in France, compared to 12% in the Union as a whole.

According to INSEE, the decline will increase in 2023 (-5.7%) in the countries of Western Europe, which include France, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. But it is in the east that it is strongest (-9.3%), in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Czechia.

In the south of the EU, which includes Cyprus, Croatia, Spain, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Slovenia, the decrease in births is less steep, being only 2.7%. In the north – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden – the drop in the birth rate is 3.4%.

In southern and eastern countries, however, the decline in the birth rate is partly due to the fact that there are fewer women of childbearing age. Since 2019, the number of women aged 15 to 49 has been decreasing in these countries, while it is stable in the west and north of the EU.

In the United Kingdom, which is no longer part of the EU, the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime fell in 2023 to 1.44 children per woman, the lowest figure recorded since the start of analyzes in 1938.

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