Further rain is expected next night and this Saturday particularly around Hérault, although not only. Subsequently, a cold drop will sweep across Europe from East to West, causing a drop in temperatures in our country as well as the return of snow to our mountains.
1) General meteorological analysis: an anticyclone centered in Scandinavia and a slow easterly flow in Europe
This weekend, the meteorological context is characterized by a Scandinavian anticyclone which will gradually migrate towards Russia. A small cold drop is circulating between the Benelux and France, responsible in particular for the upcoming rains around Hérault next night and tomorrow Saturday. At the start of next week, an anticyclone will re-form further west in the Atlantic, on an axis stretching from the Azores to England in particular.
In the middle of the week, we will monitor the formation of a cold drop in Europe which has a good probability of sliding to France as well as the Mediterranean regions. Its dynamism remains to be clarified, but a rain-snow deterioration (snowy in MOUNTAIN) seems to be confirmed with a significant drop in temperatures. Please note, however, that this is a normal situation for mid-November. Nothing exceptional, even if the feeling will obviously change significantly compared to the beginning of November which was unusually soft.
2) Rainy episode near Hérault between next night and Saturday: up to 80/100 mm possible very locally
A very weakly low-pressure flow from East to South-East is in place in the Mediterranean. A convergence seems to particularly target Hérault for the evening and the night to come, with showers and sometimes heavy rains which can be triggered first between the Biterrois, the Minervois, the Caroux and the Espinouse, but which can also spill over towards the center of Hérault and also near Narbonne/Leucate, Corbières Maritimes. Locally, rains can give accumulations of 30 or 40 mm/1 hour.
In the second part of the night, the sometimes sustained precipitation also reaches the east of Hérault, between Montpellier, Pic Saint-Loup and Larzac. They extend more weakly into the West Gard: Vigan, Vidourle, perhaps as far as Vaunage, on the edge of Nîmes and Camargue. A few sometimes heavy showers are temporarily possible as far as Salanque/PO coastline even if this is gradually becoming less likely. Tomorrow Saturday, rainy activity persists in the form of showers over Hérault and to a lesser extent over Gard and Lozère. It is therefore on the Hérault that the “largest” accumulations are expected, often with 20 to 40 mm but locally 60 to 100 mm possible in the most affected areas (in some villages).
3) Return of (relative) cold and arrival of snow in the mountains next week?
We are still observing significant divergences between the models regarding the cold drop which will cross Europe and reach France by the middle of next week. The CEP model (European forecast center) is in favor of a much more dynamic cold drop than the GFS model (American center) even if they now agree on the fact that this cold drop will reach us.
A return from the East is possible between Tuesday and Wednesday. It will give cold rains on the plains, but probably snowfall from mid altitude. Lozère, the Cévennes, perhaps Espinouse and the Pyrenees should be affected. The forecast will be refined. This will be followed by a return of the mistral and the tramontane in a very cool atmosphere.
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