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Currently in the waters of the Atlantic, the “major” category 3 hurricane called “Kirk” is expected to hit France from Wednesday October 9. Although it is expected to lose intensity before reaching France, many regions will likely be affected.
The good weather on Saturday October 5 in France should gradually disappear. From Monday October 7, rain should return to the majority of the country. From Wednesday, Hurricane Kirk, classified in category 3 and currently in the Atlantic, is expected to return to Western Europe and therefore affect part of France. We explain the phenomenon and the forecasts given this Friday, October 4.
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Weekend weather: sunshine and great mildness in Occitanie, rain returns to France on Sunday
A development still uncertain
Right now, forecasters are still having trouble agreeing on Kirk’s arrival. It should appear from Wednesday October 9 for 2 to 3 days. It is currently stationed in the middle of the Atlantic. “As they move northward, hurricanes encounter the westerly flow which crosses the Atlantic,” writes La Chaîne Météo. A confrontation which propels depressions towards Western Europe. But there are still many uncertainties, with some models seeing a trajectory towards Spain, others rather towards France, and still others towards the British Isles.
Which regions affected?
Part of France should escape Kirk. The northwestern quarter of the country will have to prepare for these difficult weather conditions. Despite the different scenarios, everyone agrees that the regions of Brittany, Pays de la Loire as well as Hauts-de-France should be among the impacted regions. “The threshold of the storm could be reached along the Channel coast,” specifies La Chaîne Météo. Some outlooks predict a wider area of precipitation including the passage of the storm over central France and up to the north-east.
Major hurricane Kirk is developing in the Atlantic, below 20°N this Thursday.
Next week it should make its extratropical transition (and therefore no longer be a hurricane) north of the Azores and could be taken over by a vast Atlantic trough towards Europe… pic.twitter.com/stWIek5JI8— Keraunos (@KeraunosObs)
Strong winds and rain
On the other hand, the forecasts agree on one thing: if Kirk were to hit France, the weather conditions for these three days will be very difficult. Wind gusts could reach up to 120 km/h, or even 130 km/h in certain places, ranging from Brittany to Nord-pas-de-Calais. The interior will not be spared with strong gusts of up to 100 km/h.
This storm will be accompanied by heavy precipitation. On the coasts, the low tidal coefficients (around 40) will reduce the risk of coastal submersion, thus mitigating some of the dangers linked to the storm.
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