Can Donald Trump really get rid of Canadian oil?

We don’t need their oil and gas. We have more than anyonehe said Thursday morning at the Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

His latest statement follows the signing of several decrees (new window) which aim to facilitate drilling on land previously prohibited for exploitation (new window) and reduce environmental barriers. Donald Trump wants to extract liquid gold under his feet to establish the energy supremacy of his country.

But to completely free itself from Canadian production, the United States will have to increase its production by 4.3 million barrels of oil. This is the record volume they imported from Canada in July (new window).

This represents a fifth of American needs. Moreover, this is a volume that American refineries buy at a discount, recalled the former premier of Alberta, Jason Kenneyon the airwaves of CBC News. Canadian oil sells on average $12 less than the reference price West Texas Intermediate.

Power in the hands of companies

According to Yvan Cliche, energy researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal (CERIUM), there is however no reason to panic because Donald Trump’s policy is above all to the symbolism and the massive increase in American production is not imminent.

We are not at all in a situation where the industry [américaine] was for example confined and there we opened the barriers and she could take in the air and all the expansion she wantedhe notes.

On the contrary, under the presidency of Joe Bidenthe United States reached production records, at 13.4 million barrels of oil per day in the summer of 2024. Yvan Cliche compares Donald Trump’s actions to adding four additional lanes on an eight-lane highway already fluid pathways.

Will industry occupy the new open roads? Nothing is less certain, according to Martin Kinggeneral manager of North American market analysis at RBN Energy.

The price is around $75, which encourages them to produce more. But the companies also said they wanted to focus on dividends to shareholdershe notes.

Already in November, an executive from the oil giant Exxon Mobil had indicated that drilling at all costs, the drill, baby, drillwas unlikely because the producers were focused on to disciplines budgetary.

Ultimately, it’s up to producers to decide where they want to drill and at what volume.

Donald Trump has some tools to influence the decisions of producers, notes Yvan Cliche. The American president thus wants to replenish the strategic reserve, which would create additional demand. The end of subsidies for electric vehicles also promises a few more years of gasoline demand, adds Yvan Cliche.

The researcher believes, however, that Donald Trump’s policies will especially help companies reduce their costs and increase their profits.

Even if regulations are reduced, it will take several years for producers to evaluate new reserves, budget… It is not instantaneousalso note Martin King.

Especially since States also have a say in the projects and not everyone adheres to its policy, says Yvan Cliche.

There is oil and oil

And even if the United States manages to massively increase its production, it will not replace Canadian oil. The United States mainly produces light oil while Canada exports mainly heavy oil.

It is the one that is in demand with the refineries of the Midwest American. They are not giving gifts to Canadians, it is oil that they want to haveunderlines Yvan Cliche. On this side, the Americans do not have many other options than to go to Venezuela which also has heavy oil. However, Venezuela is not a friend of the United States.

The Americans are still tight-knit with Canada.

For American refiners, depriving themselves of this source would mean doing without a supplier reliable et low price .

Martin King notes, however, that Trump’s pro-oil policy risks facilitating investment at the expense of Canada, but this imbalance has lasted for several years.

However, this should give fuel to the cannons of the industry and the Alberta government which are calling for the elimination of several federal policies, (new window) such as the carbon tax and the cap on emissions from the sector.