by Maayan Lubell
Even before being signed, the ceasefire in Gaza put Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a delicate situation, exposed, on the one hand, to the desire of the new American president to restore peace, and, on the other hand, on the other hand, to his far-right allies who want to continue the war.
This tension, which can only increase, forces the Israeli Prime Minister to compromise between maintaining his coalition government and maintaining relations of trust with Donald Trump.
One of Netanyahu's nationalist allies, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has already resigned on Sunday after the Gaza ceasefire took effect, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is threatening to do so if the war against Hamas does not resume.
“We must go back with a completely different style. We must conquer Gaza, establish military rule there, even temporarily, start encouraging (Palestinian) emigration, start taking territory from our enemies and win,” he said on Sunday. Bezalel Smotrich in an interview with Israeli channel Channel 14.
Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, declared on Wednesday that he was doing everything possible to move the agreement from the first to the second phase, providing for a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to last six weeks.
On the 16th day of the ceasefire, February 4, Israel and Hamas are expected to begin negotiating the second phase, the stated goal of which is to end the war that has devastated most of the Gaza Strip.
“Netanyahu is stuck between the far right and Donald Trump,” said Amotz Asa-El, political analyst at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.
“Netanyahu's coalition is fragile today and the probability that it will collapse during 2025 is high,” he adds.
The Israeli prime minister's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Steve Witkoff also told Fox News on Wednesday that he will be on the ground to oversee the ceasefire, a sign that he will keep up the pressure during the negotiations.
Steve Witkoff played a crucial role in reaching the deal, according to six officials from the United States, Israel, Egypt and other Mideast countries who spoke to Reuters before the ceasefire was announced on Jan. 15. .
ACCORDS D’ABRAHAM
Benjamin Netanyahu's balancing act between his far-right allies and the White House is not, however, limited to the Gaza Strip.
Indeed, after the ceasefire came into effect, Donald Trump declared that he would take advantage of the peace dynamic to expand the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements concluded during his first term that allowed Israel to normalize its relations with the Arab countries of the Gulf.
-On Monday, the US president said he was considering Saudi Arabia joining.
If this strategy is shared by Benjamin Netanyahu, it risks being undermined if the war in Gaza resumes, judges Eyal Hulata, head of Israel's National Security Council between 2021 and 2023.
“If the Gaza war does not end, it is impossible to make progress with Saudi Arabia. And President Trump really wants to complete the expansion of normalization. This is one of the priorities of his foreign policy agenda “, he notes.
Saudi Arabia has also made the creation of the Palestinian state a condition for the normalization of its ties with Israel, which could further complicate things for Netanyahu, as members of his government are fiercely opposed to it.
An Israeli diplomatic official told Reuters that progress could, however, be made with Riyadh by the end of the year, even if discussions on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire prove difficult.
About 70% of Israelis support the Gaza ceasefire agreement, according to a poll released Thursday by the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, and 61% of them favor broader integration including Saudi Arabia.
The first phase of the ceasefire provides for the release of hostages, a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
The second phase, if it takes place, would include the release of the remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
A third phase should make it possible to begin the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.
The question of governance of the Palestinian territory remains one of the most delicate points of the rest of the negotiations, Israel refusing to allow Hamas to remain in power.
So far, Hamas has not given ground.
Donald Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said Sunday that Hamas would never rule the Gaza Strip and that Washington would support Israel “doing what it has to do” if the Palestinian group did not give in. .
On Saturday, after signing the ceasefire, Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had the support of the United States to resume fighting if the second phase of negotiations proved unsuccessful.
“If we have to resume the fight, we will do it in a new way and with great force,” he said in a video, thus offering himself a reprieve and political room for maneuver in the face of his allies. far right of the Israeli government.
(Edited by Maayan Lubell; with contributions from Nidal al-Mughrabi, John Irish, Steve Holl, Erin Banco, Simon Lewis, Nafisa Eltahir and Andrew Mills; French version Etienne Breban; edited by)
