Is the Bayrou version that the Senate will vote on more austere than the one wanted by Barnier?

POLITICS – An even saltier recipe? The Senate must decide this Thursday, January 23 on the finance bill for 2025. A budget stopped dead by the adoption of a motion of censure in the National Assembly last December, but which remains very close to the draft worked on by Michel Barnier and his ministers in the fall.

For good reason: upon arriving at Matignon, François Bayrou chose to resume the debates where they left off. The option certainly saves time, at a time when public action is constrained by the absence of a properly voted budget, but it has a direct consequence: the version submitted to the senators is that of the previous executive. To the nearest comma? Not quite.

The Senate was able to study the bill in its entirety, between November and January, unlike the Assembly which rejected it without even completing the examination. The right-center alliance which dominates the upper house (and supports the government) has therefore left its mark by affecting, for example, the Organic Agency, the universal national service (SNU) or State medical aid for urgent care of undocumented immigrants. The Prime Minister, too, moved a few lines.

New cuts galore

Despite the thick vagueness that François Bayrou maintains on his intentions and several explosive avenues (the taxation of retirees, or the 7 hours of free work) for this budgetary sequence, the major maneuvers have begun in the part dedicated to State expenditure , examined in recent days by senators. On this aspect, the government has already been able to present several new massive budget cuts. It targets 32 billion euros in savings.

In this context, the vast majority of ministries are concerned, with plans often costing several hundred million euros: development aid, ecology, MaPrimeRénov, culture, sport. Senators, caught off guard by the government's cavalier method – way “sausage fair” some say – were able to prevent some cuts. But the main thing has happened, with a deduction of 630 million euros from the research budget, 535 million from innovation or 800 million from development aid.

Rare exception: the overseas budget was revalued in relation to the “Barnier copy”notably due to the credits necessary to launch the reconstruction of Mayotte. Among other developments, we can also cite the Prime Minister's promise to reverse the elimination of 4,000 positions in national education, planned by his predecessor.

Concerning the revenue side, the text put to the vote this Thursday includes most of the measures announced in the fall, such as the temporary effort on income tax for the wealthiest households (2 billion euros hoped for) and the “exceptional contribution” on the profits of large companies (8 billion). Other proposals included in the bill: an increased penalty on the purchase of thermal cars, increased taxation on plane tickets and gas boilers or even an exceptional tax which will concern the shipowner CMA-CGM.

What developments are coming?

And after? In principle, many points can still change. The Senate will certainly adopt without difficulty the defended text which it helped to rework. But François Bayrou will immediately request the convening of a joint committee (CMP) to arrive at a common version, shared by the parliamentarians of the two chambers.

It is in this closed-door conclave, which should meet on January 30, with only seven deputies and seven senators around the table, that final arbitrations can be integrated into the copy: a decisive moment to arrive at a version capable of resisting the censorship of the National Assembly. Thus, the concessions recently granted by François Bayrou to the Socialist Party in exchange for its benevolence risk appearing at this stage, such as that for example, concerning teaching positions.

Issue : ” the account is still not there “, explained the president of the socialist group Patrick Kanner on Wednesday, calling for “ gages » additional to the Prime Minister during questions to the government. His environmentalist colleague Thomas Dessus is even more critical on Public Sénant by denouncing a “ truly austerity budget. » With the communists, they will vote against the text this Thursday.

If the CMP is conclusive at the end of January (which is very likely given the composition of the conclave), the common text will be submitted to both chambers during the week of February 3 for a final vote without the possibility of amendment… With, perhaps being, the use of François Bayrou's first 49-3 to avoid rejection, undoubtedly followed by a new motion of censure. It is up to the Prime Minister to soften his recipe in the meantime, without attracting the wrath of the National Rally, which has been benevolent until then.

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