Fuel prices increased at the beginning of January (20 cents), then another on January 17, recalls Eco Inspirationsindicating that, according to experts, this trend is expected to continue until the end of February. The price of diesel should reach 12 dirhams per liter. This increase in prices observed in Morocco contrasts with the evolution of oil prices over the last six weeks, analyzes an energy expert, cited by the daily.
“This differential reflects the gap between the moment when the Moroccan tanker gets supplies and when the goods arrive in Morocco. This phasing process operated normally until September 2022. Since then, prices have exceeded the norms due to the standard deviation, which measures the difference between the theoretical price and the actual price. In theory, this difference should not exceed 2.6 times the standard deviation, but current prices have largely crossed this threshold, which partly explains why the nine distributors were criticized by the Competition Council,” explains -he.
Read: Fuels in Morocco: an imminent increase
-Morocco could mitigate these fluctuations by ensuring better management of its stocks, estimates Zineb El Adaoui, president of the Court of Auditors. “Since the adoption of the strategy in 2009, strategic stocks of petroleum products have never reached the 60-day threshold. For example, in 2023, the reserves of diesel, gasoline and butane gas only exceeded 32, 31 and 37 days respectively. In addition, the diversification of entry points for these products remains limited, with only one addition at Tanger Med,” she specifies.
“Current capacities are insufficient. To reach 60 days of strategic stock, we would need to have around a million tonnes, while current capacities only cover 20 days, or half of what would be necessary,” notes the expert. For his part, Mostafa Labrak, managing director of Energytium Consulting, maintains that “the creation of a strategic stock would not have a notable effect on local prices, due to the high volatility of global prices. In addition, the necessary investments are considerable: the cost of equipment exceeds 5,000 dirhams per cubic meter, not including supply needs.”
