Trump and tariffs: confusion as a negotiation technique

It’s as if your neighbor tore down your fence and replanted it a meter and a half further away, encroaching on your land.

The image is from a source involved in negotiations with the United States, to illustrate the difficult neighborly relationship in which Canada finds itself, despite itself, with its southern neighbor.

By announcing that he was considering imposing customs tariffs of 25% on Canadian products as of February 1, the American president defined the starting point of the negotiation in his own terms.

He planted the fence wherever it suits him.

In recent hours, Ottawa has faced two contradictory signals from Washington.

Canada initially welcomed what seemed like a reprieve of a few months: a decree signed by Donald Trump, in which he set April 1 as the date for federal agencies to report to him on the borders. .

Then, he was dismayed by what had the appearance of an ax that could fall in just ten days: a statement in which the president announced that he was considering customs tariffs that would hit Canada as of February 1st.

How do we reconcile what Trump signed and what he said on the same evening?

In Justin Trudeau’s eyes, this is neither a contradiction nor an inconsistency. It’s just his way of negotiating.

Mr. Trump is a skilled negotiator who knows that keeping his negotiating partners a little off-balance can pay off.

He is not the only one to interpret the president’s actions in this way.

For many, the president’s statements must absolutely be examined in the context of the review of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), scheduled for 2026.

Sources from Wall Street Journal argue that Donald Trump is brandishing the threat of customs tariffs to try to get ahead of this renegotiation, hoping to extract concessions from his trading partners. According to the American media, the president would particularly like to change the rules of the game to force automobile manufacturers established in Canada and Mexico to set up in the United States.

Questioned point-blank on the idea of ​​bringing forward the revision of theACEJustin Trudeau did not close the door, indicating that he was still ready to discuss.

The renegotiation promises to be not only rushed, but also arduous.

Noisy neighbor

Donald Trump didn’t just move the fence as he pleased. He did it by insulting his neighbor, treating Canada of abuser.

When he retired from the Federal Cabinet, no one wanted to give him a piece of his mind. Canada’s Ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, believes that, even if it is uncomfortable, Canada must remain impassive in the face of this type of insult.

You shouldn’t put too much emphasis on the way he communicates. We already saw this four years ago […]it’s part of his strategy. We don’t go too far into thatshe explained.

Faced with so much noise, Canada has only one option, according to Justin Trudeau: anchor yourself in facts by trying to demonstrate to Americans the benefits of maintaining a dynamic trade relationship with Canada.

If all the ministers pleaded in favor of this strategy, in the corridors of Château Montebello, several liberals nevertheless displayed a resigned expression. Behind the scenes, some argued that rational arguments have little impact on the president.

It’s not easy to reason with a turbulent neighbor. Especially when what he is looking for is to be able to proclaim himself the winner. In 2018, during the renegotiation of theALENACanada had to open a breach in the supply management system.

Canada will perhaps be forced once again to offer Donald Trump a small victory – a small piece of the garden – to calm him down.