During his speech after his inauguration, Donald Trump detailed his roadmap for the next four years. He mentioned in particular an increase in customs duties on foreign products. But what would be the consequences of such a measure on the French and European economy?
Donald Trump is back in business. During the speech following his inauguration, the 47th President of the United States announced what he wanted to do over the next four years, which he sees as a “golden age” for his country. On Capitol Hill, the billionaire announced a 25% increase in customs duties in Mexico and Canada on February 1. Should we fear the same thing for products coming from Europe and especially from France?
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“The consequences are still quite limited”
During the presidential campaign as well as on his social network Truth Social, Donald Trump declared that he wanted to impose a tax of 10 to 20% on all products that would be imported into the United States, or even up to 60% for products coming from China. For its part, the European Union said it was “ready to defend its economic interests”, said Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for the Economy, on Monday.
But for Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist at the Astères firm, this announced increase, of around 10%, which constitutes “bad news”, would have “still quite limited consequences in the sense that these customs duties make the dollar appreciate. But a more expensive dollar undermines the positive impact that Trump expects from customs duties to make the American economy more competitive.
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What reaction should you adopt?
He also believes that if customs duties are indeed imposed on European products, “trade would compensate them quite largely”. “So I don’t think the Europe-United States bilateral trade balance would be significantly impacted.” And what about France? Here again, he assures, there is no danger because “our major customers remain our immediate neighbors: Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, etc.”
Regarding the reaction to adopt in the face of this decision by Donald Trump, Sylvain Bersinger believes that it would be better… to do nothing: “From a strictly economic point of view, I think that nothing should be done Afterwards, from a political point of view, the Europeans will want to react to show their muscles. But that's the mistake that Trump is making, it's not because there are 10% customs duties. that European products will be more expensive 10% in the United States since the dollar will be more expensive. We should instead show calm and let the exchange rate take its course.”
