![Eurasian Economic Union: Prospects for a possible FTA with high potential [INTÉGRAL]](https://euro.dayfr.com/content/uploads/2025/01/21/982c48210d.jpg)
Nearly ten years ago, Morocco and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) increased contacts with a view to strengthening bilateral cooperation. Since the official visit of HM King Mohammed VI to Russia in March 2016, exploratory missions from both sides have become more and more numerous and private operators from both parties have come closer together, giving new impetus to trade and to investment. However, since 2018, this dynamic has slowed somewhat, without preventing Rabat from maintaining strong relations with the EAEU member countries, in particular Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Today, as the EAEU and the Kingdom experience increasing development in their respective regions, the idea of rapprochement is resurfacing. Recent statements by Igor Petrichenko, Deputy Prime Minister of the EAEU, calling for fully exploiting the potential of free trade zone agreements with third countries, including Morocco, are testimony to this.
Morocco, as a key partner in the region, is part of the ongoing negotiations for a free trade agreement with the EAEU, alongside other countries, such as Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates and Tunisia. “An option to seriously consider,” breathes Abdellah Elamri, geopolitical risk analyst, noting that with the disruptions experienced by Moroccan-European relations, “the EAEU could become an alternative or complementary market to traditional markets, which would reduce the dependence on certain partners, whose exports destabilize the Kingdom’s trade balance.
A solid foundation
The foundations of such a partnership are well established, even solid, if we refer to the results of trade between Morocco and the countries of the Eurasian Union. With Moscow, the rapprochement is palpable, especially since the first year of the Covid-19 crisis, when trade experienced a rebound of 42%, reaching 1.6 billion dollars. The war in Ukraine, with its share of geopolitical tensions, has also been an opportunity for Rabat, which has transformed itself into a sort of hydrocarbon hub for oil and gas from Russia. The same goes for agricultural trade, since the Kingdom has risen to the rank of second largest importer of Russian cereals and legumes, with a volume of around 766,000 tonnes, compared to only 209,000 tonnes the previous year. Added to this is the extension of the fishing agreement including the Saharan zones, following the verdict of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) annulling the fishing agreements and agricultural agreements between Morocco and the European Union (EU). A clear signal demonstrating the degree of Moscow’s commitment to the partnership with Rabat. Besides Russia, Morocco is also the first African trade partner for Belarus, which aspires to establish itself in the very competitive African market. The same goes for Kazakhstan, with which trade has intensified, especially since 2023, mainly thanks to trade in sulfur, coal, textiles and agricultural and fishery products.
-Great potential
For Morocco, the prospects are significant, especially in terms of energy, with Russia whose crude oil production exceeds 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) and 640 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas natural. Coal, which represents nearly 70% of the Moroccan energy mix and which is exclusively an import, is also part of the incentive elements for an agreement without customs barriers. Russian coal alone would represent around 60% of national consumption, mainly oriented towards powering the Jorf Lasfar power stations, which produce half of the Kingdom’s electricity needs. If Russian coal exports experience certain disruptions during this last year, Kazakhstan, with a production of 110 million tonnes of coal per year, can reduce the pressures of international prices on the national economy.
That said, a possible FTA between the two parties could offer considerable potential in the fertilizer market, thanks to the complementarity of the agricultural and industrial sectors of the two regions. Morocco, as the world’s largest exporter of phosphates, produces around 40 million tonnes of phosphates per year and is a key source of phosphate fertilizers. The EAEU, mainly Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, is a major player in the production of nitrogen, potash and phosphate fertilizers, with annual exports of around 10-12 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers, 5 to 6 million tons of phosphates and 2 to 3 million tons of potash. The Moroccan economy, mainly the economic fabric, could benefit from reduced customs tariffs or better competitiveness on the EAEU markets, to primarily boost exports of agricultural products with high added value, such as citrus fruits, tomatoes, as well as fish products. Caution remains in order, warns Abdellah Elamri, because the Euro-Asian bloc can prove very competitive in certain sectors, notably the chemical industries. The political dimension also requires a long meditation, since an advanced partnership with the Union dominated by Russia would be viewed unfavorably by Morocco’s traditional partners, notably the United States.
Regardless of the choice that is taken by Rabat, any new Moroccan FTA should incorporate provisions favoring the fluidity and expansion of value chains between the different parties, as well as their extension to third parties, particularly in Africa. Particular attention should also be paid to the rules related to investment, taxation, transport, customs, standards, so that Morocco can take full advantage of these agreements and their investment benefits.
