During a webinar organized this Wednesday, January 15 by the CDG Group Institute, experts and economists delivered their analyzes and perspectives for the year 2025. Between assertive optimism and caution in the face of challenges, the discussions revealed a consensus around the resilience of the national economy and its growth potential.
Anas Saidihead of the financial forecasting department at the Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts at the Ministry of Economy and Financewas firmly optimistic. “We must remember our post-Covid starting point. We were in a budget deficit of 7.6% of GDP, and today we are talking about a target of 3.5%. The efforts made to stabilize the macroeconomic framework have borne fruit, making it possible to control inflation and improve sectoral indicators,” he explained. Among the notable achievements, he cited a stabilization of inflation at around 1% at the end of 2024, an exceptional increase of 9.2% in industrial production index and a production capacity utilization rate reaching 77%, one of the highest in history.
Ahmed Zhanidirector of economic studies at CDG Capitalshares this optimism. He underlined the capacity of the Moroccan economy to cushion successive shocks, like the crisis Covid-19 and budgetary requirements imposed by the Al Haouz earthquake. “Morocco is resilient enough to face 2025, thanks to the dynamics of the secondary and tertiary sectors, the control of inflation and the stabilization of external balances,” he said.
Afaf Hakameconomist at Economic, social and environmental adviceadopts a position of cautious optimism. According to her, “2025 will be a crucial year for the government’s five-year term and the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Although notable progress has been made, vigilance in the face of risks remains essential.”
Drought and unemployment: stubborn challenges to overcome
Despite this favorable framework, several challenges remain. Jean recalled the impact of a prolonged drought, for the seventh consecutive year, on purchasing power in rural areas and the pressures exerted by international geopolitical tensions, in particular with the re-election of Donald Trump, likely to accentuate the protectionist policies.
For 2025, the macroeconomic assumptions are based on a grain harvest average of 70 million quintals, after a very weak campaign of 31 million in 2023. This agricultural rebound could lead to an 11% increase in the sector’s added value, thus contributing to overall GDP growth of 4%.
-Another point of vigilance for 2024 concerns the question of unemploymentwhich mobilized the specialized ministry throughout 2024. The data shows a significant increase in unemployment ratereaching 13.6%, figures that the Morocco hadn’t seen him for a long time. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate was below 10%, and optimism prevailed. Today, although the situation shows a job creationthis is mainly limited to paid employment. This situation requires a better understanding of the labor market, because the creation of paid jobs is often accompanied by the destruction unpaid jobs. Although some may see this as a structural improvement of the labor marketpassing from a informal market to a more structured market, this remains insufficient. It is crucial that the destruction of unpaid employment is offset by the creation of paid jobs sufficient to absorb unemployment.
A stable macroeconomic framework for sustained growth
The speakers agree on the importance of maintaining a macroeconomic framework stable. The site recalled that “all long-term projects depend on this stability”. The outlook for 2025 includes sustained growth in the secondary and tertiary sectorswith respective increases of 2.9% and 4.1%. THE automotive sector is also expected to show growth of 5%, while the construction sector forecasts an increase of 2.7%.
At the level of public finances, Jean highlighted the sanitation efforts undertaken since 2021, thanks in particular to the increase in tax revenue and the increased use of partnerships public-private. “Public investment drives growth” he recalled. In 2025, the deficit should stabilize at 3.5% of GDP, thus creating the necessary room for maneuver to support structural and social reforms.
Need to strengthen public policy evaluation mechanisms
Afaf Hakam insisted on the need to establish a rigorous framework for evaluating public policies, in order to guarantee a real impact on the lives of citizens. “Institutionalizing this evaluation is crucial to ensure optimal implementation of social projects and build a solid social state,” she said.
