“We are still in an emergency attack”

We commemorate ten years since the attack on “Charlie Hebdo”. What is the state of the threat in France?

We are still in an attack emergency. This level was triggered in March 2024, following the terrorist attack perpetrated by Daesh in the Crocus City Hall concert hall in the suburbs of Moscow with more than 140 dead. With the Olympic Games, the level has not been lowered. And politically, it is very difficult to go back. But we must qualify. In 2015, the threat was clearly higher, because Daesh had a sanctuary in the Syrian-Iraqi zone to train fighters and send them to France. This is what happened with the attacks of November 2015. Today this sanctuary has disappeared. ISIS has sought to develop a new sanctuary in Khorasan in Afghanistan and Central Asia. This branch of Khorassan succeeded in striking in Iran in January 2024, during the ceremony honoring General Qassem Soleimani, killed by the Americans in Iraq.

In New Orleans, the man who drove into the crowd killing 14 people on 1^is Last January he joined Daesh. Is the isolated act the number one threat?

There is a triptych, projected, remote-controlled and inspired terrorism. Inspired terrorism often results in an isolated act. It does not assume any operational link with a sponsor located outside the national territory. It is generated by propaganda and tactical advice that circulates on the Internet. This is not new, but ISIS has taken this form of terrorism to the next level.

Three Algerian influencers have been arrested in recent days. One of them called for attacks in France against opponents of the Algerian regime. Should we fear another form of terrorism?

These cases remind us that terrorism cannot be reduced to jihadism. Terrorism is a method that can be used by groups with very varied ideologies. From nationalist, regionalist ideologies to the ultra-right or the ultra-left.

“Terrorism cannot be reduced to jihadism”

At the end of December, France, as part of its Operation Chammal, carried out airstrikes in Syria against Daesh positions. Should we fear a return of this terrorist group?

These strikes have the merit of reminding us that this operation is still in progress. Symbolically, the strategic cycle of the war against terrorism ended in 2021 with the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan and, a few months later, on the French side, with the end of Operation Barkhane in the Sahel. But the threat is still there. UN reports show this. 2024 was a year of resurgence, particularly in the Iraqi-Syrian zone.

The new master of Damascus, al-Jolani, fought for al-Qaeda before creating the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. What do we know about this organization?

Qualifying it is not easy. Originally, there was another group: Jabhat al-Nusra. This emerged when Syria was destabilized, during the Arab Spring, in 2011. At the initiative of this new entity was Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: the emir of the Islamic State in Iraq then wanted to develop in Syria. To lead Jabhat al-Nusra, he chose a Syrian: al-Jolani. And this group has been very effective in opposing Bashar al-Assad, notably by carrying out suicide attacks. He empowered himself. In 2013, al-Baghdadi wanted to take matters into his own hands. He publicly announced the integration of Jabhat al-Nusra into the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. But al-Jolani refused and called on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri to settle the dispute. In 2016, Jabhat al-Nusra finally broke away from al-Qaeda. The following year, the group took the name HTS.

“Let’s not be naive, al-Jolani is a very conservative Islamist”

Now independent of ISIS and al-Qaeda, what is HTS’s ideology?

HTS managed the Idlib region of Syria for several years. We were able to observe the evolution of its governance. Ten years ago, al-Jolani said he would strictly apply Sharia law, but over time he has become more pragmatic and less strict. Furthermore, HTS has carried out counterterrorism operations against Daesh and al-Qaeda.

The HTS Islamists are not unknown in France. The killer of Samuel Paty was linked to one of its members…

The question is who knew within HTS? All of al-Jolani’s rhetoric consists of saying that his theater is Syria, that he is not seeking to export his fight. In this regard, the group is under surveillance.

Al-Jolani is trying to reassure the international community. But he refused to shake the hand of the German Foreign Minister. Should we be surprised?

No. Let’s not be naive, he is a very conservative Islamist. But these declarations, particularly on the political side, also earned him fierce criticism from an ideologue of al-Qaeda in Jordan, al-Maqdissi. It therefore has difficulty being accepted by both the international community and other jihadist organizations. One of al-Maqdisi’s criticisms of al-Jolani was that he referred to different sources of law, not just Sharia law. This shows that in this large Islamist family, several opposing trends. For example, we must distinguish the international jihadist movement (itself divided between Daesh and al-Qaeda) and Islamo-nationalist movements. For Daesh, nationalism is a Western invention that divides the umma, the community of Muslims.

What is the relationship between HTS and Daesh?

They are at war. ISIS cannot tolerate HTS. Welcoming Western diplomats, as al-Jolani did, is unacceptable for the international jihadist movement. The whole question is whether HTS will be able to reduce Daesh’s capacity to cause harm.

In Mali, despite the numerous blows of Operation Barkhane, the jihadists have always found the resources to reconstitute themselves…

The French soldiers were fully aware of the limits of their action. By eliminating jihadist leaders, they created more favorable conditions for political action. But without political conversion of military action, the image that emerges is that of Sisyphean work.