More intense forest fires in the north of the country, according to a study

A Canadian study examining the severity of forest fires across the country in recent decades reveals that all regions have been plagued by much more intense and severe forest fires, particularly in the north. west and north-east of the country.

This modeling study analyzing the severity of forest fires in Canada, published in the academic journal Scienceis the first of its kind in the country.

According to the team of scientists from the University of British Columbia, the University Thompson Rivers and the Canadian Forest Service, the number of days when conditions are favorable for the outbreak of severe and intense fires has increased over the past 40 years.

Xianli Wangco-author and researcher at the Canadian Forest Service, indicates that this trend has even accelerated over the past two decades and now extends beyond the summer months.

These burn severity days have been found to be present in the spring and fall […]which we didn’t expectdit M. Wang.

On average, two additional burn severity days were recorded across 10 ecozones across the country between 2011 and 2020.

It is in the taiga of the Eastern Shield, which covers part of Nunavik, that the average annual number of days suitable for high-severity burning has increased the most over the last 20 years, from 60 to 65 .

In the Taiga of the Cordillera, which covers northern Yukon and western T.N.-O.this number of average days increased by almost 3.

The main factor contributing to this increase is the presence of very dry fuel, caused by drought, heat and wind.

According to the study, climate change is the main element behind the intensification of conditions conducive to more intense forest fires in the country.

Our results indicate that global warming is expected to have more severe effects on fires in Canada, with the most pronounced effects occurring in high northern latitudesindicates the study.

A dark future

Mike Flanniganprofessor at the University Thompson Rivers and co-author, believes this study confirms the trend toward longer and more intense wildfire seasons in the future.

I don’t want to paint a gloomy picture, but the future appears cloudy in Canada, particularly in the northern regions.he said.

There will be a lot more fires and smoke in the future. Wildfire seasons will be longer, more intense, with more severe fires. […] It’s not a pretty picture, but that’s what we saw.

Mike Flannigan recalls the importance of reducing greenhouse gases now to limit or prevent these trends and protect communities.

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The researcher adds that programs like FireSmart are also very effective, especially in combination with structural protection such as sprinklers.

Under significant drought conditions, the process of deciding whether to put out a new fire, if it is in the vicinity of a community, is also an important aspect of wildfire management, according to Mike Flannigan.

In these extreme conditions, we may have a window of less than 30 minutes to put out this fire.he said.

2023, the year of the worst scenario

In 2023, a record year for wildfires in Canada, communities were quickly decimated by intense wildfires, such as Enterprisein the Northwest Territories.

Moreover, Xianli Wang says 2023 was the base year used by the researchers and which eloquently illustrates their findings. Nearly 150,000 km² of forests burned in the country, seven times the historical average.

Xianli Wang said that previously, fire activity was concentrated in one region, while in 2023, this was not the case at all: [les feux] were everywhere.

The year 2023 gives us a glimpse of the worst scenario we could witness in the coming decadesconcludes the researcher.