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Germany: the electoral campaign launched with the dissolution of parliament
Germany officially entered the electoral period on Friday with the decision of President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve parliament and set early legislative elections for February 23, in a context of economic crisis. This two-month campaign, anticipated by seven month compared to the date initially planned, is the consequence of the implosion of the government coalition of social democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz. The conservatives of the CDU led by Friedrich Merz are clearly given winners, with 32% of voting intentions, ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD, 19%), the SPD (15%) and the Greens (13%), according to a weighted average of polls at the date of Friday. Given the current state of forces, a future government led by the conservatives, in coalition with the SPD as an ally, constitutes the most likely scenario. Pending the formation of this future government, Mr. Steinmeier recalled that German democracy was functioning “even in times of transition”. Government and parliament remain operational until their successors are in place. But due to lack of a majority, the executive cannot decide on new projects without the support of the opposition. Formed by the SPD, the Greens and the liberals of the FDP, the alliance in power since the end of 2021 had shattered the November 6 with the dismissal by Olaf Scholz of the liberal Finance Minister. Reason: disputes that have become insurmountable over economic and budgetary policy. Without a parliamentary majority since then, the Chancellor had asked the question of confidence in the Bundestag in mid-December with the aim of losing it and launching the procedure for early elections, of which Mr. Steinmeier confirmed the date on Friday. – “Difficult times” – This rare event is part of the serious crisis that Europe's largest economy, once a model of political stability, is going through, at the very moment when its privileged partner in the EU, France , is also weakened by the absence of a parliamentary majority. “Especially in difficult times like now, stability requires an effective government and reliable majorities in parliament,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier stressed during his speech. According to the head of State, the early vote must make it possible to respond to the “challenges of our time”, headed by “the uncertain economic situation”. Threatened with a second annual recession in a row, Germany is facing a challenge to his model industrialist.Olaf Scholz advocates a relaxation of debt rules to make investments in order to revive the economy, while the conservative opposition pleads for maintaining the debt brake, a mechanism anchored in the Constitution.- The shadow of Magdeburg -Among other major concerns for Germany, Mr. Steinmeier cited “the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine” as well as “questions of controlling immigration and integration, and climate change”. Right and far right have forged a link between immigration and security after the car-ramming attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Friday December 20, which left five dead and more than 200 injured. After this attack attributed to a 50-year-old Saudi refugee, the AfD organized a demonstration on the spot, demanding to “close the borders” in the face of “crazy people coming from all countries.” “We don't want such delinquents (potential) in our country!”, wrote Friedrich Merz on Friday in a letter to his subscribers, stressing that “the number of serious crimes committed by migrants in Germany has been increasing for around ten years”. Under pressure, the government promised a rapid and thorough investigation to clarify possible errors by the authorities in preventing the attack. And Olaf Scholz called on the Germans to “stick together.” “Hatred and violence must have no place in this electoral campaign,” urged Mr. Steinmeier, expressing the hope that it would be “conducted with fair and transparent means”. The guarantor of the institutions pointed the finger at “external influence” without naming Russia, regularly accused of orchestrating disinformation campaigns to defend candidates who would be favorable to it in Europe. He explicitly targeted the platform X, where this interference is expressed according to him “in an open” and “particularly intense” manner.pyv/oaa/zub
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